Moderna's Struggles: Why MRNA Is Among the Worst Performing Biotech Stocks in 2024

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has been one of the worst-performing biotech stocks in 2024, with its shares declining by over 50% year-to-date. This disappointing performance has raised questions about the company's strategic decisions and market positioning. In this article, we will analyze the factors contributing to Moderna's underperformance and explore the potential implications for investors.



Moderna's reliance on COVID-19 vaccine sales has led to a decline in revenue as the pandemic has evolved into an endemic phase. The company's COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, accounted for the majority of its sales in previous years. However, as the pandemic has become more manageable, demand for the vaccine has decreased, resulting in a significant drop in sales. In 2023, Moderna achieved $6.7 billion in product sales, including $6.1 billion from COVID-19 vaccines and $0.6 billion from GAVI-related efforts. This figure represents a decline from previous years and contributes to MRNA's underperformance in 2024.



Competition in the mRNA vaccine space has intensified, with Pfizer's Comirnaty and other vaccines gaining market share. Pfizer reported $36.8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2023, while BioNTech expects $20-25 billion in 2024. This competition has put pressure on Moderna's market position and contributed to its underperformance.

Moderna's pipeline has faced setbacks, such as the delay of its HIV vaccine and the failure of its personalized cancer vaccine. These challenges have raised concerns about the company's ability to diversify its product portfolio and maintain growth momentum. Despite having nine late-stage programs expected to have milestones in 2024 and 2025, the company's focus on respiratory vaccines has not translated into immediate stock gains.



Moderna's high valuation and increased expenses have also raised concerns about its financial sustainability. The company's market capitalization has declined significantly in 2024, reflecting investor concerns about its growth prospects and competitive position. Additionally, Moderna's guidance for 2024 projects approximately $4 billion in product sales, primarily due to COVID-19 vaccine sales and the launch of its RSV vaccine. This decrease in expected sales has contributed to investor concerns about the company's growth prospects.



In conclusion, Moderna's underperformance in 2024 can be attributed to several factors, including its reliance on COVID-19 vaccine sales, intense competition in the mRNA vaccine space, pipeline setbacks, and concerns about financial sustainability. Investors should carefully evaluate these factors and consider the potential implications for the company's long-term growth prospects. While Moderna's stock price has declined significantly in 2024, the company's focus on diversifying its product portfolio and expanding into new therapeutic areas may help to restore investor confidence in the long term. As always, investors should maintain a balanced and analytical approach to investing, considering multiple perspectives and factors when evaluating market trends and making investment decisions.