Moderna's Q4 Loss Widens, 2025 Sales Guidance Disappoints

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and offered soft guidance for 2025, offsetting a revenue beat. The biotech company's net loss for the quarter was $1.1 billion, or $2.91 a share, compared to earnings of $217 million, or 55 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue fell to $1.0 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago, beating the FactSet consensus of $943 million. The decline in sales was primarily due to the earlier launch of the updated COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S., which shifted sales into the third quarter.

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, accounted for most of the quarterly revenue with $923 million, while sales of its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, came to $15 million. The company is now expecting 2025 revenue to range from $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, with a midpoint of $2.0 billion, while FactSet is expecting $2.4 billion. Most of that revenue is expected to come in the second half of the year, with the majority coming from the COVID-19 vaccine and the newly launched RSV vaccine.



Moderna CFO Jamey Mock attributed the revenue guidance revision to four potential headwinds in 2025: increased competition in the COVID market, falling vaccination rates, uncertainty around manufacturing contracts with a handful of countries, and uncertainty around RSV revaccination recommendations. Despite these headwinds, the company remains focused on driving sales growth, delivering up to 10 product approvals over the next three years, and reducing costs across its business.

Moderna is implementing several strategic initiatives to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency, which are expected to be effective in the coming years. These initiatives include reducing the cost of sales by $1 billion in 2025, with a plan for an additional $500 million cost savings in 2026. The company has already achieved a 25% reduction in cash operating cost in 2024 compared to 2023, and it aims to reduce 2025 cash costs by $1 billion with a plan for an additional $500 million cost savings in 2026.

In conclusion, Moderna's Q4 loss widened due to a significant decrease in revenue, primarily driven by the earlier launch of the updated COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. The company's 2025 sales guidance was revised downwards due to potential headwinds, including increased competition in the COVID market and uncertainty around manufacturing contracts. Despite these challenges, Moderna remains focused on driving sales growth, delivering up to 10 product approvals over the next three years, and reducing costs across its business. The company's strategic initiatives to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency are expected to be effective in the coming years, positioning Moderna for long-term success.