Moderna's Q1 Earnings: A Sliding Vaccine Revenue, But Is the mRNA Giant Still Worth the Bet?

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) delivered mixed results in its Q1 2025 earnings report, showcasing a narrow beat on earnings but a revenue shortfall that underscores the challenges of post-pandemic demand. While the company’s mRNA pipeline remains its crown jewel, investors are left weighing near-term financial pain against long-term potential. Let’s dissect the numbers and what they mean for shareholders.

Revenue: A Miss, But Not a Disaster

Moderna reported Q1 revenue of $108 million, narrowly exceeding the FactSet consensus of $106.2 million, but this was a steep drop from the prior year’s $167 million and a staggering decline from the $966 million it generated in Q4 2024. The bulk of sales came from its Spikevax (COVID-19) vaccine, which brought in $84 million, slightly above expectations. However, its newer RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) disappointed, contributing just $2 million—far below forecasts of $3.3 million.

The decline reflects the fading demand for pandemic-era vaccines, as the world shifts to endemic management. Moderna’s reliance on Spikevax—a once-blockbuster now facing market saturation—has become a liability.

Cost Cutting: A Lifeline for Liquidity

The silver lining? Moderna slashed operating expenses by 19% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, well below the $1.41 billion estimate. CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized financial discipline, with plans to cut adjusted operating costs by up to $1.7 billion by 2027, aiming to stabilize at $4.7–5.0 billion annually by then. This austerity is critical: the company’s cash balance fell to $9.5 billion at year-end 2024, projected to drop further to $6.0 billion by 2025.

Pipeline Progress: The Long Game

Moderna’s future hinges on its mRNA pipeline, which includes therapies for cancer, RSV, and CMV, among others. The company highlighted:
- Three potential 2025 approvals, including its next-gen Spikevax and an expanded RSV indication for high-risk adults.
- Six Phase 3 trial readouts, including its flu/COVID combo vaccine (mRNA-1083) and standalone flu shot (mRNA-1010).
- A 10-product approval target by 2027, covering respiratory, cancer, and rare diseases.

The May 31, 2025 PDUFA date for mRNA-1283 (the next-gen Spikevax) is a critical milestone. Success here could extend the vaccine’s commercial life.

Stock Performance: A Wall of Worry

Moderna’s shares closed at $28.54 post-earnings—a 77.28% decline year-to-date and 27.6% drop in three months—underscoring investor skepticism. The stock trades below its $59.26 average price target, with analysts maintaining a "Hold" consensus (19 of 26 analysts) amid valuation concerns.

Analysts cite valuation risks (P/E of -3.02, reflecting losses) and execution risks for its pipeline. However, Moderna’s $9.6 billion market cap and strong liquidity ($3.67 current ratio) provide a cushion for R&D bets.

Key Risks to Watch

1. Pipeline Delays: Missed milestones, such as the flu/COVID combo vaccine’s Phase 3 results, could spook investors.
2. RSV Vaccine Uptake: mRESVIA’s tepid Q1 sales ($2 million) raise questions about market adoption.
3. Cost Cuts vs. Innovation: Aggressive cost reductions might risk slowing R&D progress.

Conclusion: Buy the Dip or Bail?

Moderna’s Q1 results paint a company in transition. The short-term outlook is grim: analysts project a 2025 loss of $10.15 per share, a 14.4% worsened loss from 2024. However, the $1.5–2.5 billion revenue guidance and pipeline milestones offer hope.

Investors should focus on catalysts like the May mRNA-1283 approval and 2025 Phase 3 readouts. If Moderna can deliver on its pipeline, its mRNA platform could redefine treatments for cancer and rare diseases—potentially justifying its valuation.

For now, cautious investors might consider a small position in MRNA as a long-term bet, while short-term traders may want to wait for clearer signs of revenue stabilization. The jury is still out, but Moderna’s mRNA moat remains unmatched—if it can execute.

In sum, Moderna’s Q1 was a reminder that mRNA’s golden age isn’t over—it’s just getting harder to monetize. The next 12 months will decide if the company can turn science into sustained profitability.