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Moderna Plunge Over 10%! Slashing 2025 Sales Forecast

Stock SpotlightMonday, Jan 13, 2025 8:00 am ET

1min read

Moderna's stock fell more than 10% on Monday pre-market trading. The company revised its 2025 annual revenue projection downward to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, a sharp drop from the previously forecasted $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion and significantly below the market consensus of $2.95 billion. Additionally, Moderna confirmed its 2024 product sales are expected to range between $3 billion and $3.1 billion, falling short of the $3.3 billion estimated by analysts.

According to CFO Jamey Mock, the lower sales forecast for 2025 reflects several challenges that the company anticipates. These include intensifying competition in the COVID-19 vaccine market, potential delays with facilities being constructed in other countries, and the possibility that COVID-19 vaccination rates could decline further. Mock noted that vaccination rates in the retail market had already dropped 7% this past fall compared to the previous year.

Struggles Post-COVID Vaccine Era

With COVID-19 largely behind us, Moderna has been grappling to transition from its COVID vaccine to newer products, such as its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA. However, the adoption of the RSV vaccine has been slower than anticipated, leaving sales negligible. This has forced the company to cut costs as it searches for a new revenue-driving product to replace its COVID vaccine.

While Moderna's pipeline includes promising drugs, such as a cancer treatment in collaboration with Merck, the rapid erosion of vaccine sales poses a significant challenge. The company must endure a period of financial strain before these pipeline projects can mature into profitable products.

Insider Sales Raise Red Flags

Another concerning sign is the significant insider selling within the company. Over the past year, Moderna insiders did not purchase any shares but instead executed net sales totaling $3.3 million. The largest transaction was made by CEO Stéphane Bancel, who sold shares worth $2.3 million at a price of $88.88 per share. Such activity often serves as a warning signal, as insiders typically have the best understanding of their company's outlook.

Hopes Rest on New Products

For Moderna to overcome its current challenges, success in launching new products is critical. The company has submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for approval of a combined vaccine targeting COVID-19 and influenza. The FDA is expected to make its decision by May.

The coming months will be pivotal for Moderna as it strives to stabilize revenue and regain investor confidence amid mounting uncertainties.

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