Moderna (MRNA) Plunges 6.39% on Earnings Disappointment and Cost-Cutting Turmoil

Summary
• Moderna (MRNA) trades at $27.67, down 6.39% from its previous close of $29.56
• Intraday range spans $26.56 to $27.88, reflecting heightened volatility
• Earnings beat but lowered 2025 guidance and 10% workforce cuts trigger investor panic
• Sector peers like Pfizer (PFE) remain resilient, rising 0.43% amid broader pharma sector turbulence

Moderna’s stock faces a brutal intraday selloff following Q2 earnings that highlighted revenue shortfalls, delayed U.K. vaccine shipments, and aggressive cost-cutting measures. With the stock trading below its 200-day moving average and options volatility surging, the biotech giant’s near-term outlook remains precarious as investors weigh the sustainability of its strategic shifts.

Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut Spur Sharp Selloff
Moderna’s 6.39% intraday decline stems from a combination of underwhelming revenue performance and strategic overhauls. While the company beat EPS estimates (-$2.13 vs. -$2.97 expected), Q2 revenue of $142 million fell short of the $113 million projection. The 41% year-on-year revenue drop—driven by dwindling demand for its Spikevax vaccine—forced Moderna to reduce its full-year guidance by $300 million. Compounding concerns, the company announced a 10% workforce reduction and delayed U.K. vaccine deliveries to Q1 2026, signaling operational inefficiencies. Analysts note that the stock’s sharp decline reflects investor skepticism about Moderna’s ability to pivot beyond its fading pandemic-era success.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Bearish MRNA Outlook
• MACD: 0.893 (below signal line 1.29), RSI: 34.31 (oversold), 200D MA: $35.24 (above price)
• Bollinger Bands: $29.49 (lower band) vs. $35.36 (upper band), Support/Resistance: $27.11–$27.81 (200D range)
• YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF (MRNY): -6.56% (highly correlated with MRNA’s volatility)

Top Options Picks:
1. MRNA20250808P26 (Put Option)
• Strike: $26, Expiry: 2025-08-08, IV: 52.33%, Delta: -0.239, Theta: -0.00367, Gamma: 0.146, Turnover: 17,464
• IV: Mid-range volatility, Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price drops, Gamma: Strong responsiveness to further declines, Turnover: High liquidity
• This put option offers a 34% price drop potential under a 5% bearish scenario (ST = $26.30). With a leverage ratio of 88.26%, it amplifies downside exposure while benefiting from rising volatility.
2. MRNA20250815C28 (Call Option)
• Strike: $28, Expiry: 2025-08-15, IV: 64.24%, Delta: 0.461, Theta: -0.0805, Gamma: 0.111, Turnover: 67,166
• IV: Elevated volatility, Delta: Moderate upside capture, Theta: High time decay, Gamma: Strong price sensitivity
• A 5% bearish move (ST = $26.30) would result in a $1.70 payoff, but the 66.13% price drop potential makes this a high-risk trade. However, its 23.59% leverage ratio could capitalize on a rebound above $28.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize MRNA20250808P26 for a $26 support test, while cautious bulls may short MRNA20250815C28 if the stock fails to reclaim $29.49.

Backtest Moderna Stock Performance
The backtest of Moderna (MRNA) after a -6% intraday plunge shows mixed short-term performance but a positive long-term outlook. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are below 50%, the 30-day return is positive at 1.16%, with a maximum return of 1.35% during the backtest period. This suggests that while immediate rebounds may not be guaranteed, MRNA often shows resilience and recovery in the month following a significant intraday drop.

MRNA Faces Near-Term Volatility Amid Uncertain Recovery
Moderna’s 6.39% drop underscores a fragile technical and fundamental outlook. With RSI at 34.31 and MACD bearish, the stock remains vulnerable to further declines below $26.56. The sector leader Pfizer (PFE) rose 0.43%, highlighting Moderna’s divergence. Investors should monitor the $25.5 support level and consider the MRNA20250808P26 put for short-term bearish exposure. A rebound above $32.42 (middle Bollinger Band) could signal a recovery, but until then, the focus remains on cost-cutting efficacy and vaccine demand. Act Now: Short MRNA with MRNA20250808P26 if $26.56 breaks; target $25.5 for further downside.