MOC imbalances & P 500: 1911.3 mln NASDAQ 100: 848.6 mln DOW 30: 557.9 mln MAG 7: 505.0 mln

MOC imbalances & P 500: 1911.3 mln NASDAQ 100: 848.6 mln DOW 30: 557.9 mln MAG 7: 505.0 mln

Market-on-Close (MOC) order imbalances are indicating a bullish market tone, with recent data reflecting strong institutional buying trends. According to VT Markets, in the past five sessions, three ended with net inflows and two with outflows, suggesting a tilt towards a bullish market.

On September 2, 2025, a massive buy-side imbalance of $864 million was recorded, surpassing the 20-day moving average. This significant buy-side signal suggests strong institutional inflows. For instance, August 29 registered a $104 million net buy imbalance, while August 28 had a net sell imbalance of –$387 million. August 27 experienced a small net sell imbalance of –$33 million, and August 26 posted a net buy imbalance of $190 million.

The bullish market tone is supported by the broader economic picture. The August 2025 jobs report released last week showed the economy added 195,000 jobs, beating expectations of 180,000. This sign of a resilient labor market gives institutions more confidence to increase their equity exposure.

The decrease in market volatility, as reflected by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling below 15, also makes bullish strategies more attractive. This reduced fear in the market can make option premiums, particularly for calls, more affordable.

For those with a slightly more conservative outlook, selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads is another viable strategy. This approach allows you to collect premium based on the belief that the market will move higher, sideways, or only slightly down.

While the current data points to a bullish tilt, traders should use defined-risk strategies or maintain clear stop-loss levels. The market flows can reverse quickly, as seen with the sell-offs on August 27th and 28th. The current data should be viewed as part of a larger strategy rather than a standalone indicator.

References:
[1] https://www.vtmarkets.com/live-updates/currently-institutional-buying-suggests-bullish-market-momentum-following-recent-significant-capital-inflows/
[2] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/nasdaq-unveils-new-listing-rules-clamp-down-stock-manipulation-chinese-firms-2025-09-04/
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-rise-amid-weak-adp-jobs-data-mirans-fed-senate-hearing-134011223.html