Mobileye Revenue Surpasses Guidance, But Margins Slip

Date of Call: Jan 22, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $1.9B, up 15% YOY, slightly exceeding high end of guidance
• Gross Margin: Gross margin will be down some on a year-over-year basis
• Operating Margin: Adjusted operating income margin was 15%, up about 300 basis points versus 2024

Guidance:

• Revenue for 2026 expected in the range of $1.9B to $1.98B, representing flattish to 5% growth.
• Q1 EyeQ volume expected to be ~10 million units, supporting ~19% YOY growth in Q1.
• Full year 2026 EyeQ volume midpoint incorporates ~37 million units.
• Gross margin expected to be down year-over-year.
• Operating expenses expected to be ~$1.1B, or 10% growth.
• Top 10 customer volume up 6% at midpoint, with Chinese OEMs expected to decline ~0.5 million units.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and Profit Growth:

• Mobileye reported revenue of $1.9 billion for 2025, up 15% year-over-year.
• Adjusted operating income was $280 million, reflecting a 45% increase year-over-year.
• The growth was driven by strong demand for their products, particularly in the ADAS segment and supervision volumes from China OEMs.

EyeQ Chip Demand and Volume:

• Mobileye shipped 35.6 million EyeQ units in 2025, exceeding their original forecast.
• This increase in volume was supported by consistent demand across quarters, with notable growth in Q2 and Q3, and a strong ending to the year.
• The demand was driven by the company's strategic positions in the auto industry and the adoption of their EyeQ6 high chip by major OEMs.

Surround ADAS and Customer Engagement:

• Mobileye secured design wins with two of the top six OEMs, indicating strong engagement and adoption of their Surround ADAS solution.
• The company reported an increase in engagement with multiple OEMs, driven by the product's ability to simplify systems, reduce costs, and provide advanced functionalities.

Competitive Position and Technological Advancements:

• Mobileye emphasized its closer timeline for launching advanced products compared to competitors, supported by technological maturity and advancements.
• They highlighted innovations such as Artificial Community Intelligence (ACI) and fast thinking slow thinking concepts to accelerate scalable autonomous vehicles.

Currency Impact and Cost Management:

• Mobileye faced an FX headwind due to the appreciation of the Israeli shekel, impacting their cost base.
• They implemented workforce efficiency initiatives to mitigate this impact, which were partially offset by the FX fluctuations.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Amnon Shashua stated: 'there are a number of meaningful positives to highlight... Results were quite strong with revenue up 15%, adjusted operating profit up 45% and operating cash flow up more than 50%.' He also noted 'demand for our products came in higher than expected throughout 2025, demonstrating the resilience of the auto industry and our product offerings.'

Q&A:

• Question from George Gianarikas (Canaccord Genuity): View on the competitive environment and recent announcements from NVIDIA.
  Response: Believes Mobileye is closer to launching advanced products than competitors, with a strong advantage, and does not see NVIDIA's open-source model as a threat.

• Question from George Gianarikas (Canaccord Genuity): Differentiation of Menti Robotics in the humanoid space.
  Response: Menti is fully autonomous, vertically integrated, and has continuous learning technology, with a practical focus on structured environments like industrial and logistics markets.

• Question from Mark Delaney (Goldman Sachs): Number of OEMs engaged for Surround ADAS and potential awards in 2026.
  Response: Engagement has increased significantly after two major design wins, with more OEMs showing interest, but timing and quantities are not being predicted.

• Question from Mark Delaney (Goldman Sachs): Potential for customer partnerships and data gathering for Menti's 2028 commercialization target.
  Response: Received significant customer outreach for on-site pilots and proof of concepts, leveraging Mobileye's trusted relationships to accelerate evaluation and deployment.

• Question from Chris McNally (Evercore ISI): Near-term demand forecast for DRIVE system for 2027-2028.
  Response: Rollout will depend on 2027 city deployments, with thousands of vehicles planned, and manufacturing capacity is in place for scaling.

• Question from Chris McNally (Evercore ISI): AV customer payment structure and volume protection clauses.
  Response: Receives engineering budgets for development costs before commercialization, and with high confidence in success, is not overly concerned about volume downside.

• Question from Joseph Spak (UBS): Impact of memory shortages on supply chain and pricing.
  Response: Has mitigation strategies with multiple vendors and a conservative forecast, but sees no imminent volume impact.

• Question from Joseph Spak (UBS): Update on shekel hedging strategy given FX appreciation.
  Response: More than 50% hedged for 2026 payroll expenses at favorable rates, but year-on-year impact is significant and factored into guidance.

• Question from Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo): Update on Porsche, VW, Audi program volumes and 2026 expectations.
  Response: Execution year with no meaningful volumes expected in 2026, as start of production pushed to Q1 2027.

• Question from Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo): Customer inventory levels and replenishment expectations for Q1.
  Response: Believes customer inventories are leaner than usual heading into 2026, with Q1 orders impacted by low December volume and rising demand.

• Question from Xin Yu (Deutsche Bank): Next steps for Menti commercialization and shipping volumes.
  Response: Expects high tens of units for POCs in 2026, with production ramp in 2027 and a target for 2028.

• Question from Xin Yu (Deutsche Bank): View on owning more of the robotaxi ecosystem and potential hurdles.
  Response: Current Volkswagen partnership is optimized for deployment speed and volume; deeper vertical integration may be considered later.

• Question from Gautam Narayan (RBC Capital Markets): Drivers of 2026 adjusted operating expense increase.
  Response: Main drivers are ~5% normal inflation, Menti R&D consolidation (~4%), and FX headwinds partially offset by workforce initiatives.

• Question from Gautam Narayan (RBC Capital Markets): Potential for monetizing Menti in the future.
  Response: Believes Menti has potential to create value similar to Hyundai/Boston Dynamics, but timing is uncertain.

• Question from Colin Rusch (Oppenheimer): Near-term pricing dynamics for EyeQ.
  Response: Pricing is stable on average, with mix changes (higher EyeQ5, a two-chip program) impacting ASP and gross margin.

• Question from Colin Rusch (Oppenheimer): Regulatory hurdles for DRIVE demonstration.
  Response: In U.S. it's self-certification; in Europe, homologation will be completed in 2027, aiding commercialization in European cities.

• Question from Joshua Buchalter (TD Cowen): Update on SuperVision and Chauffeur deals.
  Response: Engagements are active, but focus is on opportunities with meaningful volume and concrete timelines for scaling.

• Question from Joshua Buchalter (TD Cowen): How EyeQ roadmap accelerates Menti's time-to-market.
  Response: Too early for EyeQ chips in humanoid robots; Menti currently uses NVIDIA, with potential for future EyeQ8/9 in high-volume production.

• Question from Samik Chatterjee (JPMorgan): Whether DRIVE will be the biggest revenue swing factor in 2026.
  Response: No change; advanced products, including DRIVE, are not expected to have meaningful revenue impact in 2026.

• Question from Samik Chatterjee (JPMorgan): Potential for second surround ADAS customer decision and pipeline impact.
  Response: Discussions are ongoing with good progress, but timing is not being predicted.

Contradiction Point 1

Surround ADAS Platform Launch and Customer Engagement

Conflicting statements on the launch timeline and customer progress for the Surround ADAS platform.

For Surround ADAS, how many OEMs are engaged and how many are expected to convert to awards by 2026? - Mark Delaney (Goldman Sachs)

20260122-2025 Q4: Mobileye is seeing an increase in engagement across multiple OEMs following the successful design wins... The product addresses a clear pain point... The company is encouraged by the trend but did not provide specific forecasts. - [Amnon Shashua](CEO)

Is the Western OEM design win additive to prior development engagements, and when can we expect volume contributions? - Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC)

2025Q3: This is a second surround ADAS program win from a leading Western OEM, expected to be a significant portion of their future vehicle lineup. Details will be disclosed in the coming weeks. - [Nimrod Nehushtan](Executive VP of Business Development & Strategy)

Contradiction Point 2

DRIVE/Robotaxi Platform Revenue Contribution

Direct contradiction on whether the DRIVE platform will contribute revenue in 2026.

Will DRIVE/robotaxi be the primary revenue driver in 2026, and what is the current monetization approach (upfront vs. recurring)? - Samik Chatterjee (JPMorgan) [Question asked by an associate]

20260122-2025 Q4: Advanced products like DRIVE are not expected to have a meaningful revenue impact in 2026, as previously stated. The 2026 revenue guidance does not include any DRIVE revenue. - [Daniel Galves](CCO), Unknown Executive

How will Drive become a major revenue source by 2027 and reduce upfront fees? - Shreyas Patil (Wolfe Research, LLC)

2025Q3: Drive revenue is a combination of one-time fees and recurring revenue sharing. With successful execution... the volume potential is massive (tens of thousands of vehicles). - [Amnon Shashua](CEO), [Daniel Galves](CCO)

Contradiction Point 3

Gross Margin Outlook for 2026

Contradiction on the primary driver of margin pressure in 2026.

How will EyeQ chip pricing evolve with rising volumes through 2026? - Colin Rusch (Oppenheimer)

20260122-2025 Q4: Pricing is influenced by mix changes between different EyeQ generations... The combined mix and the second-chip effect are expected to impact ASP by ~$0.80 year-over-year. - Unknown Executive, [Moran Rojansky](CFO), [Amnon Shashua](CEO)

With EyeQ6 ramping and EyeQ5 volumes peaking at 15%, what is the expected gross margin inflection for 2026? - Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC)

2025Q3: EyeQ5 profitability is slightly lower than EyeQ4, but the mix impact is not dramatic... As EyeQ5 volume peaks around 15% next year and then declines, it will provide a tailwind to margins. - [Moran Rojansky](CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Porsche and Audi Program Timeline

Inconsistency regarding the production timeline for key strategic programs.

What is the update on Porsche and Audi programs and their 2026 volume outlook? - Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo)

20260122-2025 Q4: The Start of Production (SOP) for Porsche and Audi has been pushed to Q1 2027 due to customer-related delays... No meaningful volumes are expected from these programs in 2026. - [Amnon Shashua](CEO), Unknown Executive

Is Surround ADAS the logical gateway for OEMs to transition to eyes-off driving, considering industry delays and the 2029 regulatory requirements? - Chris McNally (Evercore ISI Institutional Equities)

2025Q3: The launch of Mobileye's eyes-off system in 2027 with Audi will be a key inflection point. - [Amnon Shashua](CEO), [Nimrod Nehushtan](Executive VP of Business Development & Strategy)

Contradiction Point 5

DRIVE/Robotaxi Platform Commercialization Timeline and Revenue Outlook

Contradiction on DRIVE's readiness and revenue impact between 2026 and 2027.

What is the demand forecast for Mobileye's DRIVE system (robotaxi platform) over the next 2-3 years (2027-2028)? - Chris McNally (Evercore ISI) [Question asked by John Sagar]

20260122-2025 Q4: Mobileye is expanding to 60 cities with MOIA in 2027... thousands of vehicles are expected in the next few years. - Unknown Executive & [Amnon Shashua](CEO)

In 2027, which of the following will be the primary revenue driver: supervision, Chauffeur, or Drive? - Unidentified Analyst (for Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan Chase) - Follow-up:

2025Q2: Drive is expected to be a significant contributor, reflecting confidence in commercial deployment during 2026. - [Amnon Shashua](CEO) & [Daniel V. Galves](CFO)