Mobileye Global Surges 7% on Deutsche Bank Upgrade and Partnership Hopes—What’s Next?

Summary
• Deutsche Bank upgrades MBLY to 'Buy' amid speculation of Toyota collaboration
• Intraday price jumps 7.06% to $15.245, hitting 2025 high of $15.26
• Options chain sees 146x volume in $14.5 call ahead of October 17 expiry

Mobileye Global (MBLY) is trading at its highest level since March 2025, driven by a Deutsche Bank upgrade and renewed partnership speculation. With a 7.06% intraday gain and a 52-week high of $15.26, the stock’s surge reflects optimism around potential design wins and robotaxi collaborations. The options market is heating up, with call options dominating activity as traders bet on further upside.

Deutsche Bank Upgrade and Partnership Hopes Ignite Short-Term Optimism
Mobileye’s 7.06% intraday rally is directly tied to Deutsche Bank’s recent 'Buy' rating, which cited potential partnerships with Toyota and other automakers. The upgrade follows a May 2025 design win with a global automaker for Imaging Radar technology and growing interest in Mobileye’s Chauffeur platform for robotaxi services. Analysts highlight that near-term contract announcements could validate the stock’s valuation, though risks remain tied to global vehicle production uncertainties and trade tensions.

Auto Parts Sector Volatile Amid First Brands Bankruptcy Fallout
The broader auto parts sector is under pressure following First Brands Group’s Chapter 11 filing, which exposed $10–50 billion in liabilities. While Mobileye’s rally is driven by partnership optimism, peers like Aptiv (APTV, +1.13%) face mixed signals. The sector’s volatility underscores fragmented dynamics: innovation-driven stocks like MBLY benefit from design wins, while traditional suppliers grapple with supply chain instability and tariff risks.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.169 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.097, Histogram: 0.072 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 45.18 (neutral, approaching overbought territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $15.245 (near upper band of $15.48)
• 200-day MA: $15.57 (resistance ahead of $16.00)

Mobileye’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup, with key support at $14.475 and resistance at $16.00. The stock’s 7.06% gain has pushed it closer to the 200-day MA, but a break above $16.00 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high of $22.51. Options traders are favoring near-term calls, with the $15 strike (MBLY20251017C15) and $15.5 strike (MBLY20251024C15.5) offering high leverage and liquidity.

Top Options Picks:
• MBLY20251017C15 (Call, $15 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 62.74% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 27.16% (high)
- Delta: 0.592 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1118 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3476 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $28,181 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($16.00): $1.00/share (33.33% gain).
This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $16.00 breakout.

• MBLY20251024C15.5 (Call, $15.5 strike, Oct 24 expiry):
- IV: 85.55% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.55% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.486 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0614 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1690 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $13,690 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($16.00): $0.50/share (36.67% gain).
This option provides a higher-risk, higher-reward profile, suited for aggressive bulls expecting a sharp move.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider MBLY20251017C15 into a breakout above $16.00, while hedgers might use MBLY20251024P15.5 for downside protection.

Backtest Mobileye Global Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test dashboard. Please take a moment to review the performance and the full parameter set; afterward I can help you iterate on the idea (e.g., different RSI thresholds, longer holding windows, stop-loss / take-profit, etc.).Key take-away: the simple “RSI oversold + 1-day hold” rule produced a modest positive edge with limited drawdown over the 2022-2025 sample. Let me know if you’d like to refine the entry level, extend holding periods, add stop-loss / take-profit filters, or test on additional tickers.

Mobileye’s Rally Hinges on Partnership Catalysts—Act Now or Watch the 52-Week High
Mobileye’s 7.06% surge is a short-term win driven by Deutsche Bank’s optimism and partnership speculation, but sustainability depends on near-term design wins or robotaxi collaborations. The stock faces critical resistance at $16.00 and the 200-day MA. Investors should monitor October 23’s Q3 earnings and October 24’s investor conferences for clarity. Sector leader Aptiv (APTV, +1.13%) offers a benchmark for broader auto tech sentiment. Act now: Buy MBLY20251017C15 for a $16.00 breakout or short MBLY20251024P15.5 if the stock falters below $14.50.