Mobileye Global Plunges 7.05%—What’s Behind the Sharp Drop in a Strong Earnings Report?

Summary
• Mobileye Global (MBLY) trades at $14.965, down 5.8% from its July 24 open of $17.00
• Q2 revenue hits $506M, up 15% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $0.13
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $1.765M–$1.885M, signaling 7–14% growth

Mobileye Global’s stock plunged nearly 7% intraday despite a robust Q2 earnings report and raised full-year guidance. The selloff contrasts with the company’s improved operating margins and strong cash flow. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $10.48, investors are grappling with conflicting signals: stellar fundamentals versus sharp technical deterioration. The move has sparked sector-wide speculation about macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory risks in the autonomous vehicle space.

Strong Earnings Ignite Macroeconomic and Regulatory Concerns
Mobileye’s Q2 results showcased 15% revenue growth and 34% adjusted operating income improvement, yet the stock collapsed after CEO Amnon Shashua emphasized a 'conservative stance' due to 'broader macro environment' risks. The company’s guidance assumes no further U.S. tariff escalations, a fragile assumption as automakers like Porsche and Audi adjust supply chains. Meanwhile, Tesla’s legal battles over autonomous driving and NVIDIA’s Apollo lidar integration highlight sector-wide regulatory and competitive pressures. The market is pricing in a future of slower growth and higher operational risk, despite Mobileye’s strong cash position and R&D progress.

EV Sector Mixed as Tesla Slides
The autonomous vehicle sector is in turmoil as Tesla (TSLA) slumps 9.28% on legal challenges over its self-driving claims. NVIDIA’s recent Apollo lidar integration and AEye’s certification on the Drive AGX platform highlight technological advancements, but regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic uncertainty dominate investor sentiment. Mobileye’s 5.8% drop aligns with the sector’s bearish shift, despite its own positive fundamentals. The divergence between Mobileye’s operational strength and sector weakness underscores market fears about regulatory bottlenecks and macroeconomic fragility.

Bearish Options Play and ETF Positioning for a Volatile Finish
• 200-day average: 15.90 (above) • 30D MA: 16.78 (above) • RSI: 25.29 (oversold) • MACD: -0.17 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 14.95–19.56 (near lower band)

The technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 200-day MA and RSI pointing to oversold conditions. The stock is trading near its 52-week low, but the MACD histogram’s negative divergence and RSI’s oversold reading hint at potential rebound risk. Here are two top options from the chain:

• MBLY20250801P14.5 (Put, $14.50 strike, Aug 1):
- Implied Volatility: 58.36% (moderate)
- Lverage Ratio: 54.02% (high)
- Delta: -0.302 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0031 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.2517 (high sensitivity to price)
- Turnover: 1,657 (liquid)
• MBLY20250815P14.5 (Put, $14.50 strike, Aug 15):
- Implied Volatility: 55.40% (moderate)
- Lverage Ratio: 28.54% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.347 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0058 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.1756 (moderate sensitivity to price)
- Turnover: 971,049 (extremely liquid)
Aggressive bears should consider MBLY20250801P14.5 for a sharp near-term drop. Cautious investors may prefer MBLY20250815P14.5 to hedge against a slower breakdown.

Backtest Mobileye Global Stock Performance
The backtest of MBLY's performance after an intraday plunge of -7% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 51.46%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.22%, and the 30-Day win rate is 59.65%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 2.25%, indicating that MBLY has a positive outlook following a significant intraday decline.

Watch for $14.50 Breakdown or Sector Catalysts
The selloff reflects a mix of macroeconomic caution and sector-specific risks, but Mobileye’s strong cash flow and product pipeline suggest a rebound could be imminent. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $15.90 and the $14.50 support level. If the stock breaks below $14.50, the MBLY20250801P14.5 put offers high leverage. Conversely, a rebound above $17.25 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a short-covering rally. With Tesla (-9.28%) dragging the sector lower, sector-wide regulatory updates or tariff news will be critical triggers. Position now for a volatile finish. Meanwhile, the sector leader, NVDA, is up 1.61%—a stark contrast to MBLY’s woes, highlighting divergent investor sentiment.