Mobileye Global Plunges 5.34%, What Hidden Forces Are Shaping Its Freefall?

Summary
• Mobileye Global (MBLY) opens at $17.00, plummets to $14.83 intraday
• Current price at $15.24, down 5.34% from previous close of $16.10
• 52-week range of $10.48–$22.51 shows sharp bearish reversal
• Sector peers like TSMC and AMD see mixed AI-driven momentum
• Options market surges with 18M+ turnover as volatility spikes. This sharp decline in a key autonomous driving tech player amid a sector poised for AI-driven growth demands immediate scrutiny.

Bearish Whirlwind: AI Chip Optimism Clashes with Short-Selling Pressure
The 5.34% intraday freefall in MBLY defies the sector’s AI-driven optimism, as record chip equipment sales and TSMC’s 2nm progress dominate headlines. While NVIDIA’s 1.69% rally signals sustained AI demand, MBLY’s collapse stems from a toxic mix of technical exhaustion and speculative shorting. The stock breached Bollinger Band support at $14.95, triggering panic selling after failing to hold above $16.00. High gamma and theta in put options suggest institutional positioning for further downside, exacerbated by the -30x P/E ratio signaling earnings void.

Semiconductor Sector Splits on AI Momentum
The semiconductor sector shows fractured momentum: TSMC’s 2nm progress and NVIDIA’s H20 resumption buoy AI optimism, while MBLY’s collapse highlights exposure risks in niche players. AMD’s mixed performance and ASML’s 7.1% drop underscore trade war fragility. MBLY’s -5.34% move contrasts sharply with the sector’s 1.68% average gain, revealing divergent risk profiles between AI infrastructure leaders and edge-tech innovators.

Bearish Playbook: Put Options and ETF Alternatives in a Volatile Climate
• RSI: 25.29 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.175 (bearish divergence)
• 200-day MA: $15.90 (price below key support)
• Bollinger Bands: $14.95–$19.56 (current price near lower band)
• Turnover Rate: 21.17% (above average)
• Sector Leader: NVDA (+1.69%)

Top Put Options for Short-Term Volatility:
1. MBLY20250801P14.5
• Code: MBLY20250801P14.5
• Type: Put
• Strike: $14.50
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 65.66% (high volatility)
• LVR: 56.92% (high leverage)
• Delta: -0.265 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0076 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.207 (strong price responsiveness)
• Turnover: 2,672 (liquid)
Why it stands out: High IV and gamma position this put to capitalize on continued downside. Projected 5% move to $14.48 would yield $0.02 profit per contract.

2. MBLY20250801P15
• Code: MBLY20250801P15
• Type: Put
• Strike: $15.00
• Expiry: 2025-08-01
• IV: 81.84% (extreme volatility)
• LVR: 25.61% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.397 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0096 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.195 (strong price responsiveness)
• Turnover: 38,178 (extremely liquid)
Why it stands out: High IV and turnover make this the most liquid bearish play. Projected 5% move to $14.48 would yield $0.52 profit per contract, offering optimal risk/reward for short-term bearish bets.

ETF Note: No leveraged ETF data available. For directional exposure, consider shorting the $15.50 call (MBLY20250801C15.5) as a volatility hedge, though its 29% leverage ratio limits upside potential.

Backtest Mobileye Global Stock Performance
The backtest of MBLY's performance after an intraday plunge of -5% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 51.30%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.75%, and the 30-Day win rate is 59.71%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 2.26%, indicating that MBLY has a positive outlook following a significant intraday decline.

Act Now: Position for a $14.50 Breakdown Before Sector Rotation
The immediate outlook for MBLY hinges on its ability to reclaim the $16.00 psychological level. With RSI in oversold territory and Bollinger Bands signaling a potential rebound, aggressive short-sellers should target the $14.50–$14.83 range using the selected put options. Watch NVIDIA’s 1.69% rally for sector cues: if AI optimism wanes, MBLY’s -30x P/E could attract bargain hunters. Prioritize the MBLY20250801P15 put for liquidity and volatility capture. If $15.00 breaks, extend exposure to the $14.50 put for deeper bearish positioning.