Mobileye Global Plunges 4.68%, Is the AI Autopilot Losing Momentum?

Summary
• Mobileye Global (MBLY) slumps to $14.47, a 4.68% drop from its $15.18 open
• Intraday swing sees shares fall from $15.20 high to $14.285 low
• RBC Capital upgrades price target to $17 while insiders sold 63.8M shares

Mobileye Global’s stock is under pressure after a volatile session marked by a sharp selloff from its 52-week high. The company’s Q2 earnings report—highlighting a narrower $67M net loss and raised 2025 revenue guidance—has failed to reassure investors. With RBC Capital’s cautious optimism clashing against insider selling and a bearish technical profile, traders are recalibrating positions ahead of key support levels.

Earnings Optimism vs. Operational Realities
Mobileye’s 4.68% intraday drop reflects a tug-of-war between improved 2025 guidance and persistent operational risks. While Q2 sales rose to $506M and operating losses narrowed, the stock’s decline suggests skepticism about the sustainability of these gains. RBC Capital’s $17 price target hinges on securing SuperVision design wins by 2025, but the firm acknowledges the company’s projections may be overly conservative. Meanwhile, insider selling of 63.8M shares in three months and a -26.79% Sloan Ratio (indicating earnings quality concerns) amplify doubts about management’s ability to translate guidance into cash flows.

Auto Parts Sector Sinks as Aptiv Drags
The Auto Parts sector mirrored MBLY’s bearish tone, with Aptiv (APTV) down 1.90% amid broader sector weakness. While Aptiv’s decline stems from mixed EV adoption forecasts, Mobileye’s drop is uniquely tied to its high-risk AI-driven business model. Unlike traditional auto parts peers, Mobileye’s exposure to global trade frictions and the pace of autonomous vehicle adoption creates divergent tail risks. This divergence underscores the sector’s bifurcation: hardware-focused players like BorgWarner (BWA) face cyclical demand, while software innovators like MBLY grapple with execution uncertainty.

Bearish Breakouts and Gamma-Driven Plays
• 200-day average: 15.94 (below)
• RSI: 22.28 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.39 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: 14.21 (lower band)

Technical indicators confirm a deepening bearish bias. With price below all key moving averages and RSI near oversold territory, short-term rebounds may lack conviction. The 200-day support at $16.00 is critical; a break below $14.21 (lower Bollinger band) could accelerate liquidation. RBC Capital’s $17 target implies a 17% rebound, but theta decay in near-term options (e.g., MBLY20250808C15.5) suggests time-based erosion for long calls.

Top Options Picks:
• MBLY20250808C15.5
- Strike Price: $15.50
- Expiration: 2025-08-08
- IV: 62.83% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 55.56% (strong capital efficiency)
- Delta: 0.28 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0394 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.214 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 8,008 (high liquidity)
This call option offers a high-gamma leveraged play for traders expecting a short-term bounce above $15.50. With IV at 62.83%, it’s priced for significant near-term volatility, aligning with Mobileye’s pattern of sharp intraday swings.

• MBLY20250815C15
- Strike Price: $15.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 55.40% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 29.48% (balanced exposure)
- Delta: 0.41 (mid-range directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0325 (moderate time erosion)
- Gamma: 0.219 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: 2,774 (solid liquidity)
This strike balances gamma and leverage for a mid-term play. A 5% downside from $14.47 (to $13.75) would see the put payoff max(0, 15 - 13.75) = $1.25 per share, but the call’s 29.48% leverage ratio could outperform in a rebound scenario. Aggressive bulls may target a rebound above $15.50 to trigger the first option, while the second offers a more conservative entry.

Backtest Mobileye Global Stock Performance
The backtest of MBLY's performance after an intraday plunge of -5% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.86%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.72%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.33%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 2.07%, which occurred on day 18, indicating that MBLY has a positive short-to-medium-term outlook following a significant intraday decline.

Break Below $14.21 Triggers Next Move
Mobileye’s 4.68% drop has exposed key technical thresholds, with the Bollinger lower band at $14.21 acting as an immediate support. A breakdown below this level could accelerate the stock toward its 52W low of $10.48, while a rebound above $15.94 (200-day SMA) may rekindle RBC Capital’s $17 thesis. Investors should monitor Aptiv’s (-1.9%) performance as a sector barometer and watch for follow-through selling in the $14.21–$13.50 range. For now, the bearish RSI and MACD divergence suggest a cautious stance, but high-gamma options like MBLY20250808C15.5 could capitalize on volatility spikes.