T-Mobile Soars 2.6% on Earnings Hype and Regulatory Wins – Can This Momentum Last?

Summary
• T-Mobile US (TMUS) surges 2.6% to $233.01, trading near its 52-week high of $276.49
• Morgan Stanley raises price target to $280, while analysts project Q2 revenue growth to $21 billion
• Verizon (VZ) rallies 5.4% on earnings beat, amplifying sector optimism
• T-Mobile’s 2.6% gain aligns with telecom sector momentum but reflects unique 5G and fiber broadband focus

T-Mobile’s intraday rally is fueled by a perfect storm: regulatory approvals for $4.4 billion in deals, earnings optimism, and sector-wide momentum. The stock’s 2.6% surge to $233.01 brings it within striking distance of its 52-week high, while Verizon’s 5.4% earnings-driven rally underscores telecom sector strength. With Q2 earnings due July 23 and a 65% historical odds of positive post-earnings returns, investors are balancing bullish 5G growth narratives against slowing postpaid additions and competitive pressures.

Regulatory Green Light and Earnings Optimism Ignite T-Mobile’s Rally
T-Mobile’s 2.6% surge is driven by two pivotal developments: the Trump administration’s approval of its $4.4 billion UScellular acquisition and the green light for its Metronet fiber broadband joint venture. These deals, combined with the company’s decision to disband diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, have cleared regulatory hurdles and signaled operational efficiency. Additionally, Wall Street’s optimism about Q2 earnings—projected at $2.69 per share—drives momentum. Analysts highlight T-Mobile’s 5G network expansion and fiber broadband growth as catalysts, though slowing postpaid phone additions and rising churn rates in Q1 underscore competitive pressures from AT&T and Verizon’s aggressive pricing strategies.

Telecom Sector Gains Altitude: Verizon’s Earnings Boost and T-Mobile’s 5G Edge
The telecom sector is in a bull phase, with Verizon’s 5.4% rally on strong Q2 earnings and raised guidance amplifying sector momentum. Verizon’s 2.2% wireless service revenue growth and 278,000 fixed broadband additions highlight the sector’s resilience. T-Mobile’s 2.6% gain aligns with this trend but reflects its unique focus on 5G and fiber broadband. While Verizon’s $34.5 billion revenue and $1.22 EPS beat underscore its scale, T-Mobile’s 5G network covering 330 million people and its $4.4 billion UScellular acquisition position it to capture rural and mid-tier markets. The sector’s 2.6% average gain suggests regulatory clarity and earnings optimism are the primary drivers.

Options Playbook: Leverage T-Mobile’s Bullish Momentum with High-Gamma Contracts
• 200-day MA: 238.53 (below) • RSI: 38.1 (oversold) • MACD: -2.44 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 220.65–242.63 • 30D Support: 227.95–228.45

T-Mobile’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold RSI levels and a test of its 200-day MA at $238.53. The stock’s 2.6% gain has pushed it near the upper Bollinger Band at $242.63, with key support at $227.95. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA as a critical level for sustainability. For options, focus on contracts with high gamma and leverage ratios to capitalize on volatility:
• TMUS20250725C232.5 (Call): Strike $232.50, Expiry 7/25, IV 50.54% (mid-to-high IV), Leverage 39.40% (moderate), Delta 0.5358 (moderate sensitivity), Theta -1.241 (high time decay), Gamma 0.028792 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover 78,212 (high liquidity). Projected 5% upside to $244.75 yields a $12.25 payoff (max(ST - K, 0)).
• TMUS20250725C235 (Call): Strike $235.00, Expiry 7/25, IV 50.26% (mid-to-high IV), Leverage 49.63% (high), Delta 0.4635 (moderate sensitivity), Theta -1.148 (high time decay), Gamma 0.028947 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover 64,726 (high liquidity). Projected 5% upside to $244.75 yields a $9.75 payoff.
Aggressive bulls should initiate TMUS20250725C232.5 above $233.092; conservative traders may scale into TMUS20250725C235 near $232.50. Watch for a breakdown below $227.95, which could trigger TMUS20250725P225 (Put) for short-side protection.

Backtest T-Mobile US Stock Performance
The backtest of TMUS's performance after an intraday surge of 3% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 52.48%, the 10-Day win rate at 54.80%, and the 30-Day win rate at 57.59%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 3.64%, which occurred on day 59 after the surge, indicating that TMUS tends to continue performing well in the immediate aftermath of a significant intraday gain.

Bullish Setup Confirmed – Position for Earnings Catalyst and 5G Expansion
T-Mobile’s 2.6% rally hinges on its ability to execute its 5G and fiber broadband strategy while navigating slowing postpaid growth and competitive pricing wars. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a near-term bullish bias, supported by regulatory approvals and earnings optimism. However, a breakdown below $227.95 could reignite bearish sentiment. Investors should monitor Q2 earnings (July 23) for guidance on postpaid additions and churn, as well as Verizon’s (VZ) 5.4% surge as a sector barometer. For now, TMUS20250725C232.5 offers a high-gamma play on a breakout above $233.092.