MNT's $1.40 Showdown: Bullish Breakout or Impending Correction?

Mantle’s token price, $MNT, has surged 62% since breaking through the $0.85 level in early August and is now testing the key resistance of $1.40. This level marks a previous local high and is a critical psychological barrier for the asset. Currently trading at $1.38, a clean breakout with strong volume could open the path toward $1.50, the token’s all-time high recorded in April 2024. The 7-day EMA has consistently acted as dynamic support during the rally, with price respecting the level, and it is likely to remain a key anchor for potential pullbacks.

The recent momentum has been driven by Mantle’s partnership with Bybit, which integrated the token across multiple products, including Earn, OTC trades, and the EU Launchpool offering 36% APR. Bybit has also launched promotional campaigns such as the MNT Puzzle Hunt and a prediction challenge with a 1,000 USDT prize. These initiatives have contributed to a 33% increase in 24-hour trading volume for MNT, elevating it to the 15th-largest token by volume on CoinMarketCap. Bybit now accounts for 37% of MNT’s total trading volume, indicating strong liquidity and market activity on the platform [2].

In addition to Bybit’s support, Coinbase International Exchange announced on August 18 that it will launch MNT perpetual futures on August 21. This move expands institutional access to MNT and is expected to further drive trading interest. The combined influence of these exchanges has created favorable conditions for MNT to overcome the $1.40 resistance. However, technical indicators such as the RSI are showing overbought conditions at 75, suggesting that a pullback may be imminent. Traders are closely monitoring the 7EMA and the $1.30 neckline of a potential double-top pattern, as a failure to break above $1.40 could lead to a correction toward $0.90 or even $0.58 [3].

Analysts remain divided on the potential trajectory of MNT. On one hand, Ali Martinez has highlighted repeated rejections at $1.40, with each test resulting in a sharp decline. Martinez suggests that a break below the level could set the stage for a steep fall, potentially targeting $0.58 as a key support area [3]. On the other hand, analyst Lucky has shared a more bullish outlook, noting that MNT has broken out of a prolonged downward channel and is in a strong uptrend. Lucky’s analysis projects a potential move toward $1.60 if the rally continues with sustained higher highs and higher lows [3].

The market structure and volume data indicate that the battle for $1.40 is intensifying. Large buy imbalances dominated the recent move from $1.25 to $1.38, especially in the $1.28–$1.33 range, where strong deltas and aggressive market buys showed bullish conviction. However, as the price approached the $1.38–$1.40 range, the delta totals turned negative, signaling the presence of strong sell pressure. One bar recorded more than -327K in net delta, suggesting a wall of supply may be emerging at this level. This divergence in order flow raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally, especially if the price fails to break above $1.40 without confirmation from volume [1].

The 4-hour chart shows a potential double-top pattern forming, with symmetrical highs at $1.40 and a neckline near $1.30. While the 20, 50, and 100 SMAs remain bullish, the RSI is just below overbought levels at 65, and the MACD line is flattening after a recent bullish cross. These signals suggest that while the overall trend remains intact, there may be fading momentum at key levels. A decisive close above $1.40 could invalidate the bearish structure and extend the uptrend, whereas a breakdown below the neckline could trigger a projected decline toward $1.05 [1].

Traders and analysts are watching closely for signs of conviction from both bulls and bears. A clean break above $1.40 would reinforce the momentum and open the door for a new leg higher. Conversely, a rejection below this level may lead to a retest of the 7EMA and potentially a move toward $0.58. The next few days will be critical in determining the direction of MNT, as institutional listings and exchange initiatives continue to influence sentiment and liquidity.

Source: [1] Mantle ($MNT) Rallies 12% on Major News (https://cryptonews.com/news/mantle-mnt-rallies-12-on-major-news-but-faces-key-technical-test/) [2] MNT price ready to send past $1.40 resistance, ATH at ... (https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/31465942/) [3] Is Mantle (MNT) Set for a Steep Fall After $1.40 Rejection? (https://coincu.com/analysis/is-mnt-set-for-a-steep-fall-after-1-40/)