MNSO Soars 12.7% on Earnings Surge – What’s Fueling This Retail Giant’s Rally?

Summary
• MINISO Group (MNSO) surges 12.7% intraday, breaking above $24.99 after a Q2 earnings beat
• UBS raises price target to $28, signaling confidence in 21.1% YoY revenue growth
• Intraday volume spikes to 1.6M shares, outpacing 52-week average turnover

MINISO Group’s stock is in a tailwind as it defies market norms with a 12.7% intraday rally. The surge follows a Q2 earnings report showing 9.393B yuan revenue, a 21.1% YoY jump, and a UBS price target hike to $28. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $27.71, the question is: Can this momentum sustain, or is it a short-term euphoria?

Q2 Earnings Beat and UBS Price Target Ignite MNSO Rally
MINISO Group’s 12.7% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q2 earnings report, which revealed a 21.1% YoY revenue increase to 9.393B yuan. The results exceeded market expectations, prompting UBS to raise its price target to $28. This analyst upgrade, combined with the company’s strong international expansion—particularly in Asia and Europe—has ignited investor enthusiasm. The stock’s breakout above its 52-week high of $27.71 suggests a re-rating of its growth potential in the specialty retail sector.

Specialty Retail Sector Gains Momentum as MNSO Outpaces TGT
While MNSO’s 12.7% rally dwarfs the sector’s performance, the Specialty Retail industry is showing signs of strength. Sector leader Target (TGT) is up 1.29% intraday, reflecting broader retail optimism. However, MNSO’s outperformance highlights its unique catalysts—international expansion and a diversified product portfolio—positioning it as a high-conviction play within the sector.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on MNSO’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.6527 (above signal line 0.5067), RSI: 75.9 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Price at $24.99 (above upper band $21.46)
• 200-day MA: $19.99 (below current price), 30-day MA: $19.23 (bullish divergence)

MINISO Group’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA with an RSI near overbought territory, suggesting a continuation of the rally. Key levels to watch: $24.99 (intraday high) and $24.30 (support).

Top Options Picks:
• MNSO20250919C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 38.56% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 23.72% (high), Delta: 0.512 (moderate), Theta: -0.0241 (high decay), Gamma: 0.1469 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $38,750 (liquid)
- This call offers a 344% price change ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price $26.23). High gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings.
• MNSO20251121C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2025-11-21):
- IV: 45.40% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 11.07% (modest), Delta: 0.5425 (moderate), Theta: -0.0135 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0693 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: $13,810 (liquid)
- With a 181% price change ratio, this contract balances time decay and gamma for a mid-term bullish play. Aggressive bulls may consider MNSO20250919C25 into a break above $24.99.

Backtest MNSO Stock Performance
The 13% intraday surge in MNSO has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that 48.04% of days experience a return within the first three days, rising to 48.21% over ten days and 50.89% over thirty days. While the immediate response is generally positive, the overall return following the surge is relatively modest, with an average maximum return of 5.34% over thirty days.

MNSO’s Rally Gains Legs – Act Now Before Volatility Fades
MINISO Group’s 12.7% surge is a testament to its earnings strength and UBS’s upgraded outlook. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the rally, with the 52-week high of $27.71 as the next target. Investors should monitor the $24.99 intraday high and $24.30 support level. Meanwhile, sector leader Target (TGT) is up 1.29%, reinforcing retail sector optimism. For a high-conviction trade, consider MNSO20250919C25 if $24.99 holds. Watch for a breakdown below $24.30 to trigger a reevaluation.