MNSO Soars 15.3% on Earnings Surge and Strategic Expansion – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• MINISO Group (MNSO) surges 15.3% intraday, breaking above $25.59 after a Q2 earnings beat
• UBS raises price target to $28, signaling confidence in 21.1% YoY revenue growth
• Intraday volume spikes to 3.01 million shares, outpacing 52-week average turnover
• Amsterdam flagship opening and $0.2896 interim dividend highlight expansion and financial confidence

MINISO Group’s stock is riding a wave of momentum, driven by a Q2 earnings report that exceeded expectations and a strategic push into European markets. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $27.71, investors are weighing whether this rally is a sustainable re-rating or a short-term euphoria. The Amsterdam flagship store and dividend announcement underscore management’s confidence in cash flow and international growth, while technical indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend.

Earnings Beat and Strategic Expansion Ignite MNSO Rally
MINISO Group’s 15.3% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q2 earnings report, which revealed a 21.1% YoY revenue increase to 9.393B yuan. The results exceeded market expectations, prompting UBS to raise its price target to $28. This analyst upgrade, combined with the company’s strong international expansion—particularly in Asia and Europe—has ignited investor enthusiasm. The stock’s breakout above its 52-week high of $27.71 suggests a re-rating of its growth potential in the specialty retail sector. Additionally, the approval of a $0.2896 per ADS interim dividend signals management’s confidence in cash flow, though the primary catalyst remains the performance of new international locations like the Amsterdam flagship store.

Specialty Retail Sector Gains Momentum as MNSO Outpaces TGT
While MNSO’s 15.3% rally dwarfs the sector’s performance, the Specialty Retail industry is showing signs of strength. Sector leader Target (TGT) is up 3.58% intraday, reflecting broader retail optimism. However, MNSO’s outperformance highlights its unique catalysts—international expansion and a diversified product portfolio—positioning it as a high-conviction play within the sector.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on MNSO’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.6527 (above signal line 0.5067), RSI: 75.9 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Price at $25.59 (above upper band $21.46)
• 200-day MA: $19.99 (below current price), 30-day MA: $19.23 (bullish divergence)

MINISO Group’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA with an RSI near overbought territory, suggesting a continuation of the rally. Key levels to watch: $25.59 (intraday high) and $24.30 (support).

Top Options Picks:
• MNSO20250919C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 38.56% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 23.72% (high), Delta: 0.512 (moderate), Theta: -0.0241 (high decay), Gamma: 0.1469 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $38,750 (liquid)
- This call offers a 492% price change ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price $26.85). High gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings.
• MNSO20251121C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2025-11-21):
- IV: 42.62% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 10.24% (modest), Delta: 0.589 (moderate), Theta: -0.01295 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0704 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: $23,510 (liquid)
- With a 212.50% price change ratio, this contract balances time decay and gamma for a mid-term bullish play. Aggressive bulls may consider MNSO20250919C25 into a break above $25.59.

If $24.30 breaks, MNSO20250919P25 offers short-side potential.

Backtest MNSO Stock Performance
The 15% intraday surge in MNSO has historically led to poor short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest data shows that after the surge, the stock tends to underperform, with the 3-day win rate at 44.06%, the 10-day win rate at 42.57%, and the 30-day win rate at 37.62%. Additionally, the stock experienced a maximum return of only -0.22% over the 30 days following the surge, indicating that the positive momentum from the intraday gain did not translate into sustained long-term gains.

MNSO’s Rally Gains Legs – Act Now Before Volatility Fades
MINISO Group’s 15.3% surge is a testament to its earnings strength and UBS’s upgraded outlook. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the rally, with the 52-week high of $27.71 as the next target. Investors should monitor the $25.59 intraday high and $24.30 support level. Meanwhile, sector leader Target (TGT) is up 3.58%, reinforcing retail sector optimism. For a high-conviction trade, consider MNSO20250919C25 if $25.59 holds. Watch for a breakdown below $24.30 to trigger a reevaluation.