MNDY Plunges 4.9% Amid Sector Weakness and Technical Deterioration: What’s Next for the Project Management Giant?

Summary
• Monday.com (MNDY) trades at $246.49, down 4.6% from its $263.11 open
• Intraday range spans $242.52 to $264.00, signaling sharp consolidation
• Options chain shows 21.4% price change ratio on MNDY20250815P250 put contract

Monday.com’s 4.9% intraday drop has ignited a frenzy in options markets, with technical indicators flashing bearish signals. The stock’s abrupt decline aligns with deteriorating fundamentals and sector-wide pressure, as ServiceNow (NOW) mirrors the selloff. Traders are dissecting whether this reflects broader SaaS sector weakness or a standalone correction. With RSI at 28.46 and MACD in negative territory, the path forward demands a granular read of both fundamentals and volatility dynamics.

Bearish Technicals and Volatility Surge Drive MNDY’s Slide
Monday.com’s 4.9% intraday drop aligns with a deteriorating technical backdrop. The RSI (28.46) has entered oversold territory, while the MACD (-10.71) remains below its signal line (-6.97), confirming downward momentum. Bollinger Bands show the price hovering near the lower band ($247.57), suggesting exhausted sellers. Meanwhile, the MNDY20250815P250 put option’s 88.41% implied volatility ratio and 15.22% leverage ratio indicate aggressive short-term bearish positioning. This confluence of price action and options data points to profit-taking after a failed breakout attempt from its 52-week range.

Software—Application Sector Weakness as ServiceNow (NOW) Trails MNDY’s Slide
The Software—Application sector is under pressure, with ServiceNow (NOW) down 5.08% intraday. Both MNDY and NOW face similar headwinds: elevated P/E ratios (115.5 vs. 66.67) and earnings estimates that have stagnated over the past month. While MNDY’s 52-week range (202.01–342.64) offers more room for consolidation, the sector’s synchronized decline suggests macroeconomic concerns—rising interest rates and softening SaaS demand—are amplifying selling pressure across the board.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MNDY’s Volatility and Technical Breakdown
• 200-day MA: 274.54 (below current price)
• RSI: 28.46 (oversold)
• MACD: -10.71 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 247.57 (lower band support)

The technical setup favors a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $247.57 and resistance at $283.41. The MNDY20250815P250 put option (strike $250, expiring 8/15) stands out: its 88.41% implied volatility and 15.22% leverage ratio amplify potential returns if the price breaks below $247.57. The contract’s -0.526 delta and -0.073 theta suggest it’s well-positioned for a near-term decline. With $269,454 turnover, liquidity is robust. A 5% downside scenario (targeting $234.17) would yield a put payoff of $15.83 per contract. Aggressive traders may also consider the 242.52 price floor as a potential entry trigger.

MNDY20250815P250
• Type: Put
• Strike: $250
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 88.41% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 15.22% (amplified exposure)
• Delta: -0.526 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.073 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0117 (modest price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $269,454 (liquid)

This put option is ideal for capitalizing on a sharp breakdown below $247.57. The high IV and leverage ratio create a leveraged short position, while the moderate delta ensures it remains responsive to price swings. The -0.073 theta indicates urgency—traders should target a quick move before time decay erodes value. If $247.57 breaks, MNDY20250815P250 offers a high-leverage short play. Aggressive bulls may consider a bounce above $283.41 for a countertrend trade.

Backtest monday.com Stock Performance
The backtest of MNDY's performance after a -5% intraday plunge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 54.13%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.75%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.82%. While the maximum return during the backtest period is 8.05% over 30 days, the strategy's consistency is evident across different time frames.

MNDY at Crossroads: Defend $247.57 or Face Deeper Selloff
The stock’s technicals and options data suggest a critical juncture. A close below $247.57 could trigger a test of the 52-week low at $202.01, while a rebound above $283.41 might reignite bullish momentum. Sector leader ServiceNow’s 5.08% decline adds to the bearish narrative. Traders should prioritize liquidity-rich options like MNDY20250815P250 and monitor the 200-day MA at $274.54 as a key resistance level. With volatility elevated and RSI in oversold territory, the near-term outlook hinges on whether buyers emerge at critical support levels. Watch for $247.57 breakdown or regulatory reaction.