Mizuho Financial Shares Slide 4.04% As Bearish Technicals Signal Extended Downtrend

Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) shares declined 4.04% in the latest session to 5.94, extending a two-day losing streak totaling 4.19%. This technical analysis examines key indicators to contextualize the current price action.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show bearish momentum, with the 2025-07-28 candle closing near its low after a lower high (5.97 vs prior 6.19). Notable patterns include a potential Evening Star formation forming around 2025-07-22 through 2025-07-24: a large green candle (6.98% gain) followed by a small-bodied candle and confirmed by the recent decisive red candles. Immediate resistance emerges near 6.19-6.24, aligning with July's highs, while support rests at 5.73-5.75, where consolidation occurred before the breakout.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately 5.60) has crossed below the 100-day SMA (approximately 5.75), signaling deteriorating medium-term momentum. Prices are now testing the 200-day SMA near 5.90, a critical long-term trend proxy. Failure to hold above this level would reinforce bearish bias, though the 50/200-day death cross hasn't fully materialized. The current price sits below all three key SMAs, reflecting sustained downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD lines (12/26-day EMAs) remain in negative territory with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum since mid-July. The KDJ oscillator exhibits bearish confluence: %K (21.3) and %D (29.7) are both sub-30 but showing no bullish crossover, while %J (-15.9) indicates extreme oversold conditions. While oversold, both oscillators lack reversal signals, suggesting downward momentum may persist short-term.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the July upswing but are now contracting (20-day width ~4.5%), indicating declining volatility. Price breached the lower band (approximately 5.85) on high volume, typically signaling oversold conditions. However, consecutive closes below the lower band without immediate recovery often precede extended downtrends. The midline near 6.10 now acts as dynamic resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines occurred on above-average volume (2.81M shares vs 30-day avg ~3.05M), confirming bearish conviction. Notable volume surges accompanied July's rally peak (7.98M shares on 2025-07-14) and subsequent rejection at 6.24, establishing distribution. Current volume patterns lack capitulation signals but validate the breakdown below 6.00 support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (34.6) approaches oversold territory but hasn't reached the 30 threshold. It diverged bearishly in late July as prices made higher highs while RSI made lower highs, forewarning the current correction. Though nearing oversold conditions, RSI hasn't established bullish divergence, and the current reading permits further downside before becoming technically extreme.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 4.01 (2024-09-27) and high of 6.24 (2025-07-24), key retracement levels emerge. The 38.2% level (5.36) aligns with June consolidation, while the 50% retracement (5.12) corresponds to the 200-day SMA. Notably, the 23.6% level (5.71) overlaps with July's breakout point and current support, making 5.70-5.75 a critical confluence zone. Failure here would target the 38.2% retracement.
Confluence & Divergence
Strong confluence exists at 5.70-5.75, where candlestick support, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, and July's breakout point converge. Bearish divergences emerged in late July as RSI and MACD failed to confirm price highs. The oversold KDJ reading conflicts with the absence of RSI extremes, suggesting potential volatility before stabilization. A decisive break below 5.70 would likely accelerate selling toward 5.36.