Mizuho Financial Group Surges 3.07% as Technical Indicators and Golden Cross Fuel 4.52% Four-Day Rally

Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) has rallied 3.07% in the most recent session, extending a four-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 4.52%. This upward momentum suggests strong near-term buying pressure. Candlestick Theory reveals a bullish bias, with consecutive green candles forming a "Rising Three Methods" pattern, where the price remains above the prior consolidation range. Key support levels are identified at 6.42 (October 22 close) and 6.38 (October 13 close), while resistance appears at 6.735 (October 28 high) and 6.85 (October 16 high). A break above 6.735 could target 6.85, aligning with prior resistance-turned-support.

Moving Average Theory indicates a medium-term bullish trend. The 50-day moving average (calculated from mid-October data) is above the 200-day MA, suggesting a "Golden Cross" scenario. The 100-day MA sits between the 50-day and 200-day, reinforcing the uptrend. The 200-day MA, currently around 6.30–6.40, acts as a critical support line. If the price remains above this level, the long-term bullish bias holds; a close below could signal a retest of the 6.30–6.25 range.

MACD & KDJ Indicators show mixed signals. The MACD line (12,26,9) crossed above the signal line in late October, confirming bullish momentum, but the histogram has flattened, hinting at potential exhaustion. The KDJ stochastic oscillator is near overbought territory (K=85, D=75), suggesting short-term caution. However, a divergence between the KDJ and price action—where the price makes higher highs while the oscillator lags—could signal a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands reflect increased volatility, with the price near the upper band (6.735). The bands have expanded after a period of contraction in early October, indicating a breakout phase. The middle band (20-day MA) currently resides at 6.50–6.55, acting as a dynamic support. If the price retraces to this level, it could find a floor before resuming the uptrend.

The Volume-Price Relationship validates the recent rally, with trading volume spiking to 12 million shares on October 28, the highest in the dataset. This confirms strong institutional or retail participation. However, volume has not consistently exceeded previous up days, raising questions about the sustainability of the move. A decline in volume during further gains could signal weakening conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought levels (75–80), suggesting caution. While the RSI remains above 50, it has not yet crossed into overbought territory (70), leaving room for further upward movement. A close above 70 would trigger a watch for potential short-term corrections.

Fibonacci Retracement levels drawn from the October 13 low (6.09) to the October 28 high (6.735) identify key support at 6.45 (38.2%) and 6.38 (50%). A pullback to these levels could attract buyers, especially if the RSI shows divergence. The 61.8% retracement at 6.24 is a critical area; a break below would invalidate the current bullish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis integrates the provided strategy: buying when the KDJ indicator is oversold (K < 20) and holding for 5 days. Historical data from 2022 to 2025 shows no instances where KDJ fell below 20, with the lowest value at 34.13 (2022-12-30). This anomaly suggests the stock’s structure lacked oversold conditions during this period, likely due to strong fundamentals (e.g., digital transformation with Google Cloud) and consistent demand. The stock’s 137.6% cumulative return from 2022–2025 highlights long-term momentum not captured by the KDJ-based strategy. The KDJ values exceeding 100 in 2025 (e.g., 110.95) further indicate potential data irregularities or alternative calculation methods, undermining the indicator’s reliability here.

In conclusion, MFG’s current technical profile favors continuation of the uptrend, supported by moving averages, volume, and Fibonacci levels. However, overbought conditions in MACD/KDJ and RSI warrant caution. The backtest underscores the need to complement technical indicators with fundamental analysis, particularly in resilient stocks like MFG where structural growth drives prices independently of short-term momentum signals.