Mizuho Financial Group Stock Surges 6.78% to ¥9.61 Breaking Key Resistance Cluster in Extended Uptrend Since 2025

Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) closed the most recent session with a 6.78% surge to ¥9.61, breaking above a prior resistance cluster between ¥9.1 and ¥9.3. This sharp move aligns with a broader uptrend since late 2025, where the stock has advanced from a low of ¥5.33 to current levels. The candlestick pattern suggests a potential reversal from a descending channel, with the recent bullish breakout supported by a "hanging man" formation at ¥8.59 (Jan 30) and a subsequent "bullish engulfing" pattern at ¥9.14-¥9.61 (Feb 5-6). Key support levels include ¥8.4-8.6 (prior consolidation zone) and ¥7.3-7.5 (2025-08-20 lows), while resistance now resides at ¥9.61-9.8 (current high and 23.6% Fibonacci extension).

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action reflects a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish, with the ¥9.61 close forming a "rising window" (gapping up from ¥9.14) that signals strong institutional buying. The ¥8.96-9.14 range (Feb 5) acted as a short-term support, now converted to a dynamic resistance. A breakdown below ¥9.0 could trigger a retest of the ¥8.4-8.6 zone, where a "hammer" pattern on Feb 2 might offer a buying opportunity.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (estimated ¥8.6-8.8) currently sits below the 200-day MA (¥8.2-8.5), forming a "golden cross" that validates the uptrend. The 200-day MA, however, remains a critical threshold; a close below ¥8.5 would signal a breakdown in long-term momentum. The 100-day MA (¥8.5-8.7) has provided a dynamic support since mid-2025, reinforcing the current bullish bias.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a sustained positive divergence since mid-2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line in late January, confirming momentum. The stochastic oscillator (KDJ) entered overbought territory (K: 85, D: 75) in early February, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the absence of bearish divergence (price highs > oscillator highs) implies the uptrend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the upper band at ¥9.7-9.8 and the lower band at ¥8.3-8.5. The recent close at ¥9.61 sits near the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day MA (¥9.2-9.4) is probable, but sustained trading above ¥9.4 would signal a new volatility regime.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent surge was accompanied by a 2.78 million-share volume spike, 30% higher than the 20-day average. This validates the breakout’s strength but also raises concerns about exhaustion if volume contracts in subsequent sessions. The Feb 5-6 rally shows a "volume climax" pattern, typical of trend continuations if followed by a consolidation phase.

RSI

The RSI (14-day) has surged to 72, indicating overbought conditions. While this suggests a short-term correction, the RSI remains in an ascending channel, reflecting strong underlying momentum. A close below 60 would signal a bearish signal, but given the stock’s recent performance, a "buy on weakness" scenario is likely.

Fibonacci Retracement

The 61.8% retracement level (¥8.8-8.9) has acted as a key support since late 2025, while the 161.8% extension (¥10.3) represents a theoretical target. The current price near ¥9.61 aligns with the 23.6% extension, suggesting the trend may extend further if volume remains robust.

Confluence & Divergence

Multiple indicators align with the bullish thesis: the golden cross, ascending MACD, and Fibonacci levels all support continuation. However, the overbought RSI and KDJ suggest caution. A divergence between price and RSI (e.g., lower highs with higher RSI) would signal a potential reversal. The key risk is a breakdown below ¥9.0, which could trigger a retest of the ¥8.4-8.6 zone.

Summary
Mizuho Financial Group’s technical profile suggests a strong continuation of the uptrend, supported by confluence among moving averages, MACD, and Fibonacci levels. While overbought conditions warrant caution, the absence of bearish divergence and robust volume validates the bullish bias. Traders may consider long positions with a stop-loss below ¥9.0, targeting ¥10.3 as a primary objective. Short-term corrections to ¥9.2-9.4 could offer entry opportunities, but a breakdown below ¥8.6 would invalidate the bullish case.