Mizuho's 2026 Fintech Themes: Mapping the S-Curves and Infrastructure Plays

The fintech sector is entering 2026 at a technological inflection point. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev has mapped six key themes that reveal a sector in transition, where infrastructure layers for stablecoins, payments, and IT services are poised for exponential adoption, while legacy models face pressure. This framework is the lens through which to view the coming paradigm shift.

The first theme is a major policy catalyst: the potential implementation of a 10 percent APR cap on credit cards, alongside support for the Credit Card Competition Act. Mizuho argues this could ultimately benefit the sector by driving a shift from credit to buy-now-pay-later (BNPL), which generates incremental debit volumes. The firm sees FIS as best positioned to capture this network effect, while lenders like Affirm and Upstart stand to gain from cheaper funding and stronger demand.

This policy shift sits alongside a deeper technological divergence. The second theme is the accelerating split between volatile Bitcoin and rapidly scaling USD-backed stablecoins. Regulatory clarity is accelerating this split, with stablecoins poised to increasingly dominate real-world usage. This is not just a narrative; it's a volume reality. Stablecoins now account for more than 70 percent of total crypto transactional volume, highlighting a decisive shift from speculative assets to scalable financial infrastructure.

Investor sentiment reflects this pivot. A Mizuho survey found that both retail and institutional investors are bullish on fintech, with a clear 3.1x and 2.7x ratio favoring the sector over last year. Yet their enthusiasm is waning for crypto stocks broadly, with institutions showing a bearish view on crypto treasury companies. This divergence suggests capital is flowing from the volatile periphery to the foundational rails of the new financial system.

The remaining themes complete the picture of a maturing infrastructure layer. Prediction markets are emerging as a meaningful growth engine, with Robinhood a leader. Consumer lending appears set for reacceleration, while legacy processors like Global Payments are seen as unloved names with strong fundamentals. Finally, a potential IT services renaissance is on the horizon, driven by rising tech spending and improving issuance trends. Together, these six themes outline a sector where the exponential growth curve is being built on stable, utility-driven infrastructure, not speculative hype.

Theme Analysis: Exponential Adoption and Infrastructure Layers

The six themes Mizuho identifies are not just market trends; they are signals of where the next financial paradigm is being built. The real investment story lies in the infrastructure layers that will support exponential adoption, moving beyond speculative assets to scalable rails.

The proposed 10% APR cap is a prime example of a policy catalyst accelerating adoption of new payment rails. While a direct rate cap is uncertain, the mere proposal signals a shift in the regulatory environment. Mizuho argues this could ultimately benefit networks and BNPL players as consumers move from high-cost credit to alternative financing. This isn't a minor tweak; it's a potential driver of a massive volume shift from credit to debit-like models. The infrastructure layer here is the payment network itself-companies like FIS that handle the transaction flow stand to capture the incremental volume as the adoption curve for BNPL steepens.

Similarly, the crypto divergence theme reveals a clear S-curve in action. Regulatory clarity is accelerating the split between volatile Bitcoin and rapidly scaling USD-backed stablecoins. This is a fundamental infrastructure play. Stablecoins now account for more than 70 percent of total crypto transactional volume, a dominance that is likely to grow. The exponential adoption is happening in the utility layer, not the speculative one. These stablecoins are becoming the de facto currency for real-world payments and DeFi protocols, building the foundational rails for a new digital economy.

Finally, the potential "IT services renaissance" points to a broader infrastructure boom. This isn't about flashy consumer apps; it's about the backend systems that power everything. Rising tech spending and improving issuance trends suggest a renewed appetite for capital investment in the tools and platforms that businesses rely on. Rating agencies, which assess the creditworthiness of these new ventures, are poised to benefit. This theme underscores that exponential growth often requires a supporting infrastructure layer that gets built before the consumer-facing applications scale.

The bottom line is that the most compelling investments are in the layers that enable the next paradigm. Whether it's payment networks adapting to new regulations, stablecoins becoming the plumbing of digital finance, or IT services supporting a wave of corporate spending, the winners are those building the fundamental rails.

Connecting Themes to Stock Picks: The Unloved and the Positioned

Mizuho's six themes converge on a clear investment thesis: the next wave of financial growth is being built on infrastructure layers that are maturing and becoming regulated. The stock picks that stand out are those positioned at the core of these exponential adoption curves, whether they are the overlooked foundational players or the first-movers in new, regulated markets.

Global Payments (GPN) is the archetype of the "unloved" name with strong fundamentals. The stock has been under severe pressure, with shares down about 28.1% over the past year. Yet, Mizuho sees this as a potential mispricing of its core utility. The company is a dominant player in merchant acquiring and payment technology, a fundamental layer for digital transactions. In a sector where sentiment is shifting toward infrastructure, GPN's established position in the payment rails is a key asset. Its recent valuation analysis suggests a significant discount, implying the market may be overlooking its role in the long-term payment trends Mizuho identifies. For an investor betting on the stability of the financial plumbing, GPN represents a value play on a necessary infrastructure layer.

FIS, on the other hand, is highlighted as the player best positioned for a specific policy-driven S-curve. Mizuho argues that a potential 10 percent APR cap could benefit networks and BNPL players by driving a shift from credit to alternative financing. FIS, with its massive scale in payment networks, is seen as the prime beneficiary. The logic is straightforward: as consumers move from high-cost credit cards to BNPL and other debit-like models, the volume of transactions flowing through these networks will increase. FIS's infrastructure is built to handle that scale, making it a direct play on the volume shift Mizuho forecasts. This isn't a speculative bet on a new product; it's an investment in the network that will process the new wave of payments.

Finally, the theme of prediction markets as a "meaningful growth engine" is taking a concrete regulatory step forward. Crypto-native exchange Gemini (GEMI) recently announced that its subsidiary received CFTC approval to operate a prediction market for U.S. retail investors. This is a landmark event, as it makes Gemini the first crypto-native exchange to obtain the necessary regulatory license for this specific market. The significance is twofold. First, it validates the infrastructure layer for prediction markets, moving them from a niche, often gray area into a regulated financial product. Second, it gives Gemini a first-mover advantage in a market that Mizuho sees as emerging. This regulatory clarity is the catalyst that can accelerate adoption from the early innovators to a broader user base, turning a promising theme into a scalable business.

The bottom line is that Mizuho's framework points to companies building the rails for the next financial paradigm. Whether it's the overlooked giant in payment processing, the network poised to handle a regulatory shift, or the crypto-native platform gaining legitimacy, the common thread is positioning within a maturing infrastructure layer. These are the stocks where the exponential growth curve is being built.

Catalysts, Risks, and the 2026 Inflection Point

The infrastructure plays Mizuho identifies are poised at a critical inflection point. Their exponential adoption hinges on a handful of near-term catalysts and faces distinct regulatory headwinds. The coming year will test whether these foundational layers can scale or if friction will slow the curve.

The primary catalyst is regulatory action on the proposed 10% APR cap. President Donald Trump's recent call for a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates is a direct policy signal that could reshape the payment and lending landscape. While details are murky and compliance uncertain, the mere proposal accelerates the shift Mizuho forecasts from credit to buy-now-pay-later and other debit-like models. For infrastructure players like FIS, this isn't a distant possibility; it's a potential driver of massive volume shifts through their networks. The catalyst is the regulatory clarity that could follow, turning a political talking point into a structural change in transaction flows.

A key risk, however, is the uneven global regulation of stablecoins. These are the foundational rails for a new digital payments layer, but their growth faces a fragmented legal landscape. As the IMF notes, turning stablecoins into a force for good requires concerted actions by policymakers, at both the domestic and international levels. Without coordinated rules, their use as a dominant infrastructure layer could be hindered by capital controls, currency substitution fears, and inconsistent legal status. This regulatory friction is the single biggest vulnerability to the exponential adoption curve for stablecoins, which already account for more than 70 percent of total crypto transactional volume.

Finally, watch for the integration of major M&A deals as a test of scale and execution. The pending acquisition of Worldpay by Global Payments is a prime example. The deal received critical U.K. Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) clearance in Q3 and is set to close in early 2026. This is a high-stakes integration for the "unloved" infrastructure giant. Success will demonstrate its ability to consolidate its merchant solutions platform and drive the 6% constant currency growth from its Genius platform. Failure would validate the market's skepticism and highlight the execution risk inherent in scaling these foundational layers through consolidation.

The bottom line is that the 2026 inflection point is defined by this tension between catalysts and constraints. Regulatory action can supercharge adoption curves, but only if it is coordinated and clear. The infrastructure plays are built for exponential growth, but their path is paved with policy decisions and integration hurdles that must be navigated.