Mitsubishi UFJ Slides 4.59% As Bearish Technicals Converge Below Key 14.30 Resistance

Candlestick Theory
Mitsubishi Ufj exhibits a pronounced bearish continuation pattern, with the most recent session (July 28, 2025) forming a long-bodied red candle closing near its low at 14.12 after testing resistance near 14.30. This follows a two-day decline totaling 4.59%, confirming selling pressure. Key support is evident at 13.55 (July 22 low), while resistance congeals at 14.69-14.87 (July 24-25 highs). The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing candles suggests ongoing bearish dominance, though oversold conditions may prompt temporary stabilization near 14.00.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (14.35) has crossed below the 100-day MA (14.50), signaling deteriorating medium-term momentum. Price is now trading below all three major moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the 200-day MA at 13.25 providing distant psychological support. This configuration—where shorter MAs lead longer ones downward—confirms a bearish trend structure. The widening gap between the 50-day and 200-day MAs reflects accelerating negative momentum since the April peak.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish signal line crossover with histogram bars extending below zero, corroborating downward momentum. KDJ aligns with this view: K-line (31) and D-line (39) are descending toward oversold territory while the J-line (18) has entered oversold territory. This convergence suggests heightened potential for a technical bounce, though the primary trend remains negative until K/D sustain readings above 50. KDJ’s lack of bullish divergence despite recent declines indicates no imminent reversal strength.
Bollinger Bands
Bands are expanding after prolonged contraction in late July, reflecting rising volatility and confirming the bearish breakout. Price has pierced the lower band (14.00) on elevated volume, suggesting oversold conditions may develop near 13.80-14.00. The absence of "M" or "W" reversal patterns near the bands implies continued downside risk, with the 20-period moving average (14.45) now acting as dynamic resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines show concerning volume dynamics: the 3.75% drop on July 28 occurred on higher volume than the preceding up-day (July 24), validating bearish conviction. Distribution patterns emerge as rallies (e.g., July 23’s 6.36% surge) fail to sustain volume momentum, while sell-offs attract increasing participation. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) slopes downward, confirming institutional selling pressure in the 14.10-14.30 range.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (37) is approaching oversold territory but remains above the critical 30 threshold that would signal capitulation. Current readings lack positive divergence despite the 4.59% two-day decline, indicating undiminished bearish momentum. While RSI nearing 30 may enable short-term consolidation, sustainable recovery requires reconquering the neutral 50 level—last seen before the July breakdown.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the April 9 peak (15.03) and June 25 trough (13.52) as anchor points, key retracement levels provide critical markers: 14.27 (38.2%), 14.48 (50%), and 14.68 (61.8%). The July rally stalled precisely at 14.87—just above the 61.8% level—before reversing, confirming this zone as resistance. Current price trades below all Fib levels, with the 38.2% retracement (14.27) now acting as resistance. Downside targets align with the 13.55-13.65 support confluence zone.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence validates resistance near 14.30 (Bollinger midline, Fib 38.2%, prior candlestick lows) and support at 13.55 (June-July swing low). The volume-MACD-KDJ trifecta confirms bearish momentum, though oversold KDJ/RSI readings near 13.80 may trigger technical rebounds. Notable divergence exists in the RSI’s failure to confirm recent new price highs in July, which preceded the current downturn. Collectively, indicators skew bearish with tactical oversold conditions emerging near 14.00. Probabilistic upside appears capped below 14.30 without volume-backed bullish catalysts.