Mister Car Wash Plunges 9.7% — Is This the Start of a Deeper Downturn?

Summary
• Mister Car Wash (MCW) trades at $5.545, down 9.69% from its $6.14 close
• Intraday range spans $5.27 to $5.90, reflecting sharp bearish pressure
• 52-week low of $5.27 now within 60 ticks, signaling near-term support test

The stock’s collapse has sent shockwaves through the specialty retail sector, with technical indicators and options data painting a starkly bearish picture. With turnover at 7.99% of float and RSI at 29.8, the selloff appears structurally driven. Traders are now dissecting whether this is a short-term correction or a catalyst for a broader retail sector reset.

Bearish Breakout Confirmed by Technical Deterioration
MCW’s 9.7% intraday drop is the culmination of deteriorating technicals and a lack of fundamental catalysts. The stock opened below its 30-day moving average ($6.38) and immediately tested the 52-week low of $5.27. A short-term bearish Kline pattern, combined with a MACD histogram of -0.0187 and RSI at 29.8 (oversold), confirms a breakdown in momentum. The absence of news in the latest company updates and the sector’s muted reaction (WASH down 0.59%) suggest this is a liquidity-driven selloff rather than a sector-wide event.

Bear Call Spreads and Short-Dated Puts in Focus
• 30-day MA: $6.38 (below current price)
• 100-day MA: $7.08 (significant overhead resistance)
• RSI: 29.8 (oversold but not yet actionable)
• MACD: -0.055 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 6.78 (upper), 6.47 (middle), 6.15 (lower) — price near lower band

The technical setup favors short-term bearish strategies. Key levels to monitor include $5.27 (52-week low) and $5.50 (psychological support). The options chain reveals two compelling contracts:

• MCW20260220P5
- Type: Put
- Strike: $5.00
- Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 47.24% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.2795 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.001210 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1686 (responsive to price moves)
- Turnover: 0
Why it stands out: High leverage ratio of 13.42% and IV above 40% suggest potential for capitalizing on a deeper selloff.

• MCW20260220C7.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $7.50Why it stands out: While the call seems counterintuitive, its low delta and high gamma make it a speculative play if the stock retests resistance levels.

Payoff scenarios: Under a 5% downside move (to $5.27), the put contract would yield a 5.545 - 5.00 = $0.545 profit per share, or ~109% return on strike price. The call would expire worthless.

Trading opinion: Aggressive bears should prioritize MCW20260220P5 as a near-term short. If the 52-week low holds, a 50%+ return is plausible.

Backtest Mister Car Wash Stock Performance
The backtest of MCW's performance after an intraday plunge of -10% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 51.25%, the 10-day win rate is 45.00%, and the 30-day win rate is 43.75%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the overall returns over the 3, 10, and 30 days are negative, with returns of -0.13%, -0.04%, and -1.99%, respectively. The maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.09%, which occurred on day 13, suggesting that while there is a chance of recovery, the odds are not strongly in favor of significant positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a large intraday decline.

Urgent Action Needed as MCW Tests Key Support
The selloff has created a critical juncture for MCW. With RSI in oversold territory and the 52-week low in sight, traders must decide whether to defend the $5.27 level or scale into short positions. Sector leader Washington Trust (WASH) at -0.59% adds caution to the broader market. Immediate focus should be on the $5.27 support and $5.50 psychological level. Act now: Position for a breakdown below $5.27 or consider the MCW20260220P5 put as a high-leverage play on continued weakness.