Mirum Soars 10.5% on Earnings Beat and Revenue Surge: A Biotech Breakout in the Making?

Summary
• Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) surges 10.5% intraday, hitting $59.005 amid Q2 earnings and revenue beats.
• Q2 revenue jumps 64% to $127.8M, driven by Livmarli and bile acid product sales.
• Guidance raised to $490–$510M for 2025, signaling robust commercial execution.

Mirum’s stock has surged to a record high, fueled by a Q2 earnings report that outperformed expectations. With revenue growth accelerating and a narrowed net loss, the biotech’s momentum is underscored by a 64% year-over-year revenue increase. The stock’s intraday range of $54.75 to $61.00 highlights its volatility, while analysts raise price targets to $80–$81. This move reflects confidence in Mirum’s pipeline and commercial strategy.

Earnings Beat and Revenue Surge Drive Mirum’s Rally
Mirum’s 10.5% intraday surge stems from a Q2 earnings report that far exceeded expectations. The company reported a narrower-than-forecast loss of $0.12 per share and revenue of $127.8 million, a 64% year-over-year increase. Livmarli’s net sales rose 87% to $88.2 million, while bile acid products (Cholbam and Ctexli) contributed $39.6 million. Management raised 2025 revenue guidance to $490–$510 million, reflecting strong demand and successful commercial execution. Additionally, the launch of a new tablet formulation of Livmarli in the U.S. and progress in phase IIb trials for volixibat in cholestatic liver diseases have bolstered investor optimism.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Mirum’s Momentum
• 200-day average: $45.64 (well below current price)
• RSI: 54.77 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: 0.58 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.68)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $59.005, above upper band of $53.55

Mirum’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend. The stock has pierced its 52-week high of $61.00 and is trading above key moving averages. Short-term momentum indicators like the bullish engulfing candle and positive MACD divergence indicate strength. For options traders, the MIRM20250815C60 and MIRM20250919C60 contracts stand out:

• MIRM20250815C60: Strike $60, Expiry 8/15, IV 34.61%, Leverage 78.23%, Delta 0.357, Theta -0.1608, Gamma 0.1170, Turnover $18,722
- High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a short-term rally. Theta decay (-0.16) and gamma (0.117) suggest sensitivity to price swings.
- Payoff at 5% upside (target $61.95): $1.95 per contract.
• MIRM20250919C60: Strike $60, Expiry 9/19, IV 48.51%, Leverage 16.86%, Delta 0.493, Theta -0.0692, Gamma 0.0404, Turnover $20,148
- Balanced IV and delta for a mid-term play. Theta (-0.069) and gamma (0.04) offer controlled exposure to price movement.
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.95 per contract.

Aggressive bulls should target the $61.00 52-week high, with a stop-loss below $54.75 (intraday low). Conservative traders may consider the MIRM20250919C60 for a measured play on sustained momentum.

Backtest Mirum Stock Performance
The backtest of MIRM's performance after an intraday percentage change greater than 11% shows mixed results. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are high at 49.42%, 52.72%, and 55.85% respectively, the average returns over these periods are relatively low, at -0.06% for 3 days, 0.98% for 10 days, and 3.10% for 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.95%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while there is potential for gains, the strategy also carries some risk.

Hold for the 52-Week High or Watch for a Pullback
Mirum’s rally is underpinned by strong earnings, revenue growth, and pipeline progress. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at $61.00. However, volatility remains high, and a pullback to the 200-day average ($45.64) could test conviction. Sector leader Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) fell 2.48%, but Mirum’s momentum appears decoupled from broader biotech trends. Investors should monitor the VANTAGE study data in Q2 2026 and regulatory updates on Livmarli’s tablet formulation. For now, holding long positions or entering via the MIRM20250815C60 option offers exposure to a breakout scenario.