Miniso Surges 7.4%: A Closer Look

Miniso has risen 7.4% to $22.38 after a trading update.

Miniso Group Holding (MNSO) has seen a significant uptick in its stock price, rising by 7.4% to $22.38 after releasing its latest trading update. The company is set to unveil its fourth-quarter earnings on August 21st, with analysts projecting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, despite an expected revenue jump of 25.2% to $677.28 million [1]. This anticipated performance is in line with MINISO's history of exceeding earnings expectations, having done so 88% of the time [1].

Wall Street analysts have provided a range of forecasts for MINISO's future, with the average one-year price target sitting at $22.71. The highest target reached $26.57, while the lowest was $16.48, suggesting an optimistic upside of 8.97% from its current stock price of $20.84 [1]. Investors looking for more detailed analytics can find them on the MINISO Group Holding Ltd (MNSO, Financial) Forecast page.

Investor sentiment remains favorable for MINISO, with a consensus recommendation of 2.1 from 13 brokerage firms, categorizing it under "Outperform." This rating is part of a scale where a score of 1 indicates a Strong Buy and 5 indicates a Sell [1]. GuruFocus provides a compelling estimated GF Value of $33.71 for MNSO over the next year, suggesting a potential upside of 61.76% from the current trading price of $20.84 [1]. The GF Value considers historical trading multiples and anticipated business performance.

In the second quarter of 2025, MINISO reported robust financial performance, with total revenue reaching RMB 4.97 billion, up by 23%, surpassing the upper limit of prior 18%-21% guidance [2]. The MINISO brand revenue increased by 20% to RMB 4.56 billion, with mainland China revenue rising by 14% to RMB 2.62 billion and overseas revenue up by 29% to RMB 1.94 billion [2]. The TOP TOY segment saw revenue grow by 87% year-over-year to RMB 400 million, exceeding previous 70%-80% guidance [2]. Same-store sales turned positive for the first time in four quarters, attributed to product mix optimization and operational improvements [2].

MINISO's overseas markets performed exceptionally well, with overseas revenue totaling RMB 1.94 billion for Q2 2025, up 28.6%. U.S. revenue grew more than 80% with mid-single-digit positive same-store sales growth [2]. The company added 37 net new stores in the U.S. and 30 MINISO stores in China in Q2 2025, with overseas store count growing by 94, and year-to-date net overseas additions of 189 for H1 2025 [2]. Gross margin increased 0.4 percentage points to 44.3%, driven by increased contributions from overseas and IP-related sales, including improvements in the TOP TOY segment [2]. Adjusted operating profit reached RMB 850 million for Q2 2025, up 8.5%, with an adjusted operating margin of 17.2% [2].

MINISO's stock price rise is likely due to the positive earnings outlook and strong second-quarter financial performance. Investors should closely monitor the company's earnings report on August 21st to gauge its future prospects.

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3072246/miniso-mnso-set-to-release-q4-earnings-with-mixed-expectations
[2] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/08/21/miniso-mnso-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/