Ming-Chi Kuo: iPhone 16 Series' pre-orders estimated at ~37mn units in the first weekend, below expectations for iPhone 16 Pro Series

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of Tianfeng International said that the pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend were estimated to be about 37 million units, down about 12.7% year-on-year from the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series, mainly due to the lower-than-expected iPhone 16 Pro series.

Kuo noted that the shipment time of the iPhone 16 Pro series was significantly lower than that of the 15 Pro series, except for the increased pre-order inventory, and from the year-on-year decrease in first weekend sales, the key was still the lower-than-expected demand. The pre-order inventory of the iPhone 16 Pro Max significantly grew year-on-year due to the improvement in the yield rate of the periscope camera and Apple's optimistic outlook on the demand for the model.

One of the possible key reasons for the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the biggest selling point, "Apple-style AI" Apple Intelligence, cannot be launched simultaneously with the iPhone 16. In addition, the fierce competition in the Chinese market still affects iPhone demand. Although the first weekend sales of the iPhone 16 Plus and standard models both grew year-on-year, they had limited help for overall iPhone shipments.

Although the pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series in the first weekend declined year-on-year, Kuo believes that the production plans of the supply chain should not change much in the short term. Apple still has the opportunity to improve sales through the launch of Apple Intelligence and subsequent seasonal promotions (the end-of-year season in Europe and the US and the Double Eleven in China) and this is the key to observe the changes in iPhone demand.

In addition, the strategy of equipping the 16 Pro with a periscope and keeping the price of the iPhone 16 series unchanged had limited help for the first weekend sales of the iPhone 16. If the fourth-quarter launch of Apple Intelligence and seasonal promotions have limited help for the shipments of the iPhone 16, Apple is believed to have a more aggressive iPhone product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.