Minerals Skyrocketed 10.79%—Could a Regulatory Shift Be Fueling This Surge?

Summary
• Minerals Technologies (MTX) reported Q2 earnings of $45.4M with $1.44 EPS, driven by $528.9M in revenue.
• Intraday price surged to $65.79 (vs. $59.2 close) amid US policy shifts on critical mineral recovery.
• Sector news highlights $2.5B in trapped minerals at Coeur d’Alene and Bingham Canyon.

Minerals Technologies (MTX) has ignited a 10.8% rally, trading at $65.59, amid a confluence of Q2 earnings strength and federal policy tailwinds. The stock’s intraday high of $65.79 and low of $61.05 reflect sharp volatility, fueled by revelations of $100M revenue growth plans and the DOI’s push to extract critical minerals from mine waste. With the 52-week high at $86.49 still in reach, the market is betting on a sector-wide renaissance.

Q2 Earnings and Regulatory Tailwinds Ignite MTX Surge
MTX’s 10.8% intraday rally stems from two pivotal catalysts: (1) Q2 earnings of $45.4M ($1.44 EPS) with $528.9M in revenue, and (2) the US Department of the Interior’s aggressive policy shift to recover critical minerals from mine waste. The latter aligns directly with MTX’s core operations in mineral processing, while the former signals operational resilience. The DOI’s directive to streamline regulations for extracting tellurium, germanium, and rare earths from legacy sites has amplified sector optimism, with MTX positioned as a beneficiary of this $2.5B+ opportunity at sites like Bingham Canyon and Coeur d’Alene.

Mining Sector Gains Momentum as US Policy Shifts
The mining sector is showing renewed vigor as the US prioritizes domestic mineral independence. While sector leader RPM International (RPM) slipped 0.19%, MTX outperformed by a staggering 10.8%—a testament to its alignment with the DOI’s $100M+ mineral recovery agenda. The sector’s focus on extracting uranium, tellurium, and rare earths from legacy sites is creating a divergent trajectory for companies like MTX, which specialize in mineral processing, versus traditional manufacturers like RPM.

Options Playbook: Leveraging MTX's Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.657 (bullish), RSI: 50.45 (neutral), 200D MA: $67.92 (above price)
• 30D MA: $56.96 (below), Bollinger Bands: Upper $61.06 (near), Lower $55.07 (below)
• Key levels: 200D resistance at $75.85, 30D support at $58.89

MTX’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend with long-term consolidation. The 50.45 RSI and 0.657 MACD signal momentum, while the 200D MA at $67.92 acts as a critical resistance. Two options contracts stand out for leveraged exposure:

• MTX20250815C65: Call, strike $65, expiration 2025-08-15, IV 20.18%, leverage 33.04%, delta 0.656, theta -0.096, gamma 0.112, turnover 1,857
• MTX20250815C70: Call, strike $70, expiration 2025-08-15, IV 36.55%, leverage 66.08%, delta 0.284, theta -0.075, gamma 0.057, turnover 4,951

MTX20250815C65 offers high leverage (33.04%) and gamma (0.112) for a 5% upside scenario (target $68.92), yielding ~13.6% potential return. MTX20250815C70, with mid-range IV (36.55%) and moderate delta (0.284), suits a 10% move (target $72.15) for ~17.3% return. Aggressive bulls should prioritize MTX20250815C65 into a break above $67.92; conservative players can scale into MTX20250815C70 as the 200D MA approaches.

Backtest Minerals Stock Performance
The backtest of MTX's performance after an intraday surge of 11% shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive change, the overall returns over various time frames were relatively modest, and the win rates were not exceptionally high.

Act Now: MTX's Surge May Signal a New Bull Cycle
MTX’s 10.8% surge reflects a structural shift in mineral policy and earnings strength. With the 200D MA at $67.92 acting as a near-term target and the sector’s focus on $2.5B+ trapped minerals, this move could be sustainable. Watch the $65.59 level to confirm bullish momentum and RPM International’s -0.19% drag for sector cues. Immediate action: Allocate 30% to MTX20250815C65 for leveraged exposure and 20% to MTX20250815C70 for a longer-term play—both align with the 52-week high’s $86.49 trajectory.