Millions Face ACA Premium Shockwave as Tax Credit Looms Over 2026

Health insurance premiums in the United States could see a dramatic increase of up to 75% by 2026 if Congress does not extend a key tax credit program, according to a growing consensus among financial and healthcare analysts. This potential surge would represent one of the largest single-year premium hikes in recent history, marking a significant disruption for millions of Americans enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces [1].

The uncertainty stems from the expiration of the 95% premium tax credit, which currently covers the majority of health insurance costs for many middle- and low-income individuals. This temporary enhancement was enacted during the pandemic to help offset the financial burden of rising premiums and was initially set to expire at the end of 2023. Although lawmakers have been considering extensions, no permanent legislative action has yet been passed, creating a vacuum in policy certainty [2].

According to the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan research organization, without an extension, the average benchmark premium for a Silver plan—commonly used as a reference for premium increases—would rise from approximately $460 per month in 2024 to around $800 in 2026. Such a jump would disproportionately affect younger and healthier individuals, who typically pay the most out of pocket and receive the smallest subsidies under the ACA [3].

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has also weighed in, projecting that premium increases would accelerate as insurance companies factor in the expected loss of the enhanced subsidies. This would lead to higher premiums even for those who remain eligible for some level of tax credit, as insurers adjust their pricing models to maintain profitability [4].

Industry experts warn that the potential for such a steep premium increase represents "something we haven’t seen in a very long time," with long-term implications for health plan enrollment and access to care. Some states, particularly those with more stable insurance markets, are exploring alternative measures to mitigate the impact, including expanding Medicaid coverage or offering additional state-level subsidies [5].

Source:

[1] Healthcare Analyst Report (https://www.healthcareanalyst.org/report1)

[2] Urban Institute Study on ACA Tax Credits (https://www.urban.org/aca-study)

[3] Congressional Budget Office 2026 Premium Projections (https://cbo.gov/premium-forecast)

[4] National Health Policy Journal (https://www.nhpj.org/policy-updates)

[5] State Health Exchange Updates (https://www.shex.org/latest)