MillerKnoll Plummets 8.75%: Earnings Optimism Crumbles Amid Guidance Woes

Summary
• MLKN drops 8.75% to $17.355, erasing $1.67 from its value in under 3.5 hours
• Q3 revenue beats but Q4 guidance misses estimates, sparking investor skepticism
• Options chain shows 44% implied volatility on October 17 put options, signaling heightened bearish bets
• Sector leader Steelcase (SCS) declines 0.83%, amplifying industry-wide jitters

MillerKnoll’s stock is in freefall as Q3 earnings optimism clashes with Q4 guidance pessimism. The $17.355 price, down from a $19.25 intraday high, reflects a 9.3% collapse in market value. With the furniture sector under pressure and options volatility spiking, investors are scrambling to parse whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper structural shift.

Earnings Beat vs. Guidance Miss: A Tale of Two Quarters
MillerKnoll’s Q3 performance was a mixed bag: revenue surged 10.9% to $955.7 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.45 beat estimates by 31.1%. However, Q4 revenue guidance of $946 million—$14 million below the $960.7 million consensus—sent shockwaves through the market. The disconnect between Q3’s strength and Q4’s caution exposed lingering doubts about the company’s ability to sustain growth. Analysts now question whether the Q3 rebound was a one-off or a sign of renewed momentum, with the bearish options activity (e.g., MLKN20251017P17.5 at 44% IV) reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment.

Furniture Sector Suffers: Steelcase’s 0.83% Drag
The broader furniture sector is underperforming, with Steelcase (SCS) down 0.83% as of 15:25 ET. While MLKN’s Q3 beat outperformed its peers, the sector’s collective anxiety over macroeconomic headwinds—ranging from office occupancy rates to supply chain bottlenecks—has amplified MLKN’s volatility. Steelcase’s decline underscores a shared vulnerability: even strong quarterly results can’t offset long-term sector-wide concerns about post-pandemic demand normalization.

Bearish Playbook: Puts and Puts Alone
• MACD: -0.246 (bearish divergence), RSI: 36.46 (oversold), 200D MA: 19.98 (price below)
• Bollinger Bands: 17.02 (lower band) to 21.92 (upper band), with price near the 17.02 support
• 20D MA: 20.89 (price below), 100D MA: 19.14 (price below)
The technicals paint a bearish picture. MLKN is trading near its intraday low of $17.02, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling a potential breakdown. The 200-day MA at $19.98 acts as a critical resistance level; a close below $17.50 could trigger a test of the 52-week low at $15.25. The MLKN20251017P17.5 put option (44% IV, 21.84% leverage) and MLKN20251017P20 (58.48% IV, 6.24% leverage) are top picks for short-term bearish exposure. The former offers high leverage (21.84%) and a 33.33% price change ratio, while the latter benefits from a 51.35% price change ratio and 58.48% IV. A 5% downside scenario (to $16.49) would yield a put payoff of $0.51 for the 17.5 strike and $3.51 for the 20 strike. Aggressive bears should target a breakdown below $17.50, with the October 17 puts offering the most immediate liquidity (volume: 368, turnover: 25,073).

Backtest MillerKnoll Stock Performance
Key findings• From Jan-2022 to 24-Sep-2025, buying MillerKnoll (MLKN) at the close of any session that experienced an intraday draw-down ≥ 9 % from the prior close and then exiting on the earliest of 12 % gain, 8 % loss or 20 calendar-days generated a cumulative –17.6 % return (annualised –4.3 %). • Risk-adjusted performance was poor (Sharpe –0.31) with a 30.8 % maximum draw-down. • Although winners averaged +6.8 %, losers averaged –7.3 % and occurred more frequently, leading to a negative expectancy. • The rule therefore failed to capture meaningful rebound alpha in MLKN over the period and would not be recommended without additional filters (e.g., volume surge, macro screen, or broader market confirmation).Parameter notes (auto-completed) • Take-profit 12 % and stop-loss 8 % are common intraday-reversal brackets that give a 1.5× reward/risk; they were selected as sensible defaults in the absence of user preference. • Maximum holding period was capped at 20 trading days to ensure the test reflects a short-term rebound strategy.Please explore the detailed back-test panel below.You can interact with the panel to inspect trade-by-trade outcomes, equity curve and distribution of returns.

Short-Term Bear Case: Target $15.25 52-Week Low
The 8.75% intraday drop is not a fluke but a reflection of deteriorating conviction in MLKN’s ability to sustain its Q3 momentum. With the 200-day MA at $19.98 acting as a psychological barrier and the options market pricing in 44% volatility, the near-term outlook is decisively bearish. Investors should monitor the $17.50 level—breaking below this could accelerate the move toward the 52-week low at $15.25. Meanwhile, Steelcase’s 0.83% decline highlights sector-wide fragility. For those willing to take directional bets, the MLKN20251017P17.5 put offers the most compelling risk/reward profile. Watch for a breakdown below $17.50 or a reversal in the options chain’s implied volatility to signal a potential bottom.