Milk before cereal is a crime, and the market will trend higher, not lower.

Milk before cereal is a crime, and the market will trend higher, not lower.

The quick-service breakfast market has been facing significant challenges, as evidenced by the recent earnings calls of major players in the sector. According to Revenue Management Solutions (RMS), breakfast traffic fell by 8.7% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, a stark contrast to the 2% decline in lunch and 1.8% increase in dinner traffic [1].

This downward trend is attributed to several factors. Richard Delvallée, senior vice president of consulting services at RMS, attributes the decline to consumers skipping breakfast as a cost-cutting measure and the shift towards having breakfast at home due to increased commuting [1]. Similarly, Wendy’s interim chief executive officer Ken Cook cited increasingly discerning consumers as a reason for the poor performance of breakfast, suggesting that consumers are more likely to eat breakfast at home during times of economic uncertainty [1].

Major brands are responding to these challenges with various strategies. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski has been emphasizing the need to provide more compelling value options at breakfast and has been promoting the 50th anniversary of its breakfast in the U.S. However, these efforts have not yielded significant traction, and Kempczinski acknowledged that the breakfast daypart remains the most economically sensitive part of the business [1]. Wendy’s, on the other hand, is planning to launch a new beverage lineup to bolster breakfast sales, including cold brew coffee with cold foam add-ins and sparkling energy drinks [1].

While McDonald’s and Wendy’s are focusing on breakfast, other brands like Burger King are exploring late-night dining as a growth opportunity. McDonald’s has also expanded late-night hours at a vast majority of its restaurants, as many consumers are dining out more late at night [1].

The trends suggest that the breakfast market is under significant pressure, but brands are actively working to address these challenges. As the economic situation evolves, it will be crucial to monitor how these strategies impact the performance of breakfast sales.

References:
[1] https://www.nrn.com/quick-service/breakfast-remains-a-tough-market-for-quick-service-restaurants