Middle-class Relief as Olive Oil Prices Finally Fall

After years of steady increases, olive oil prices have finally begun to decline, providing much-needed relief to consumers worldwide. The recent drop in prices can be attributed to several factors, including changes in production patterns, geopolitical factors, and technological advancements in the industry.

One of the primary reasons for the decline in olive oil prices is the increase in production, particularly in major producing countries. According to the International Olive Council (IOC), world production for the 2024/25 crop year is expected to reach 3,375,500 tonnes, an increase of 32% on the previous year. This anticipated increase in supply has contributed to a decrease in prices (Graph 2).



Geopolitical factors and trade dynamics have also played a significant role in shaping the global olive oil market and its price trends. For instance, the conflict in Syria, a major olive oil producer, has led to a significant decrease in its production and exports, affecting the global supply and driving up prices. Additionally, changes in export values and regional production trends have influenced global olive oil prices (IOC, 2025).



Technological advancements in olive oil production and processing have also influenced the market's supply and demand dynamics. Modern extraction techniques, such as cold pressing and supercritical CO2 extraction, have enhanced oil quality and yield, appealing to health-conscious consumers and driving market growth. Advanced refining processes have led to improved oil stability and shelf life, increasing the supply of refined olive oil. Enhanced testing methods, such as gas chromatography, ensure higher purity and authenticity, addressing the rising concern over adulteration in the market (Source: Global Olive Oil Market Segmentation, By Type, Flavor, Extraction Method, Application, Distribution Channel - Industry Trends and Forecast to 2031).



The growth of e-commerce platforms has enabled brands to reach broader audiences, including consumers who prefer to purchase premium, organic, and specialty oils online. This has expanded the market's reach and increased demand. The increasing awareness of the health benefits of the Mediterranean diet and the rising demand for natural and organic food products have also contributed to the overall growth of the olive oil market (Source: Global Olive Oil Market Segmentation, By Type, Flavor, Extraction Method, Application, Distribution Channel - Industry Trends and Forecast to 2031).

In conclusion, the recent decline in olive oil prices is a welcome relief for consumers worldwide. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including increased production, geopolitical factors, and technological advancements in the industry. As the global olive oil market continues to evolve, consumers can expect to see further changes in prices and market dynamics, driven by these and other factors.