MicroStrategy Stock Falls 1.61% To $329.71 Amid Bearish Technical Signals And Persistent Selling Pressure

Strategy (MSTR) declined 1.61% in the latest session, closing at $329.71. The following technical analysis examines the stock using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bearish engulfing pattern formed on September 15th-16th, where a down candle (327.79) was followed by a larger up candle (335.09), but subsequent sessions failed to sustain gains. A long upper wick on September 10th (high: $340.01, close: $326.45) indicates rejection near the $340 resistance. Support is evident near $320 (tested multiple times in September), while resistance remains firm between $338–$340. The inability to close above $340 despite repeated tests this month signals persistent selling pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($354.20) remains above the 100-day MA ($348.15) and 200-day MA ($331.80), preserving the structural uptrend. However, the current price trading below all three MAs (329.71 vs. 354.20/348.15/331.80) reflects short-term bearish momentum. A critical confluence exists near $331–$332 where the 200-day MA and August swing low converge. A decisive close below this zone could accelerate selling pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover with histogram bars in negative territory, signaling weakening momentum. KDJ readings (K: 28, D: 35, J: 14) indicate oversold conditions but lack reversal confirmation. The K-line dipping below 20 warns of sustained downside momentum. Both oscillators align in suggesting near-term bearish continuation, though oversold KDJ levels increase sensitivity to potential relief rallies.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted significantly in early September (width narrowing 30%), preceding the recent volatility expansion and downside breakout. Price currently trades below the lower band ($333), typically indicating oversold conditions. However, the break coincided with rising volume, lending validity to the bearish move. Historical precedent suggests such breaks often precede short-term bounces, but continuation moves can occur during strong trends.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days have recently shown higher volume than up days (e.g., September 17th volume 9.69M vs. September 16th 8.65M), confirming distribution. The August 22nd rally to $358.13 occurred on 17.4M volume – the highest in three months – establishing it as a major resistance anchor. Current weakness lacks climactic volume, suggesting selling pressure may not be exhausted.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI reading of 38 resides in neutral territory but trends downward from mid-September’s 55 peak. It has not touched oversold (<30) since July, indicating residual downward capacity. Bearish divergence occurred in early September when price tested $340 while RSI made lower highs. This warns that rebounds lacking RSI confirmation above 50 may be unsustainable.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $317.76 (April 21st) and high of $438.84 (July 11th), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($405.50), 38.2% ($379.70), 50% ($378.30), and 61.8% ($366.90). The stock breached the 38.2% level decisively in August and now approaches the 61.8% support ($366.90). Confluence exists at the 78.6% level ($348.20), aligning with the 200-day MA, making it critical intermediate support.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Strong confluence appears at $331–$333 (200-DMA + multi-touch August support + Bollinger lower band). A breakdown here would validate bearish signals from MACD, volume distribution, and moving average alignment. Notable divergence exists between KDJ’s oversold signal and RSI’s neutral reading, suggesting internal indecision. Volume patterns diverge from typical capitulation, indicating cautious monitoring for exhaustion signals. The weight of evidence currently favors downside continuation unless price reclaims the $340 resistance zone with conviction.