Microstrategy Rises 2.12% Amid Bullish Technical Signals At Key 373 Support

Microstrategy (MSTR) advanced 2.12% in the latest session, closing at 383.41, after testing support near 373.00. This rebound occurs within a volatile context following a multi-week decline from July's peak of 456.45, with significant technical levels now coming into focus.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a Bullish Engulfing pattern formed on August 4-6, where the August 6 white candle (373.00-384.42) fully eclipsed the prior day's bearish body. This signals potential reversal momentum at key support near 373-375, a level reinforced by multiple tests since early July. Resistance is pronounced at 390-392 (July 31 low and August 4 high), with secondary resistance at 410-415 (mid-July consolidation zone).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (≈385) is acting as dynamic resistance, with the price currently trading below it. Crucially, the 100-day SMA (≈370) and 200-day SMA (≈340) maintain upward slopes, reflecting intact long-term bullish structure. However, the recent death cross (50-day crossing below 100-day in late July) implies intermediate bearish pressure. Sustained trade above the 50-day SMA would signal near-term trend recovery.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish momentum with the histogram in negative territory, though its convergence since the August 1 low suggests weakening downward pressure. The KDJ indicator exited oversold territory (K=20/D=18 on August 1) with a bullish crossover (K=55/D=50 currently), signaling improving short-term momentum. Divergence appears as KDJ's upward inflection contrasts with MACD's lingering bearish stance.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the July sell-off, reflecting elevated volatility. Price recently bounced off the lower band (≈365), contracting toward the 20-period SMA (middle band ≈380). The squeeze from 15% bandwidth to 10% this week suggests declining volatility, often preceding directional breakouts. Holding above the middle band would support bullish continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
The August 1 sell-off to 366.63 occurred on extreme volume (21.8M shares), likely marking capitulation. Subsequent rebounds (August 4: +6.17% on 12.4M shares; August 6: +2.12% on 7.2M shares) show higher conviction on advances. However, the August 5 decline (-3.54%) saw higher volume than the preceding rally, indicating residual selling pressure. Volume divergence at resistance remains a concern.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI rebounded from oversold (28 on August 1) to neutral (48 currently). This recovery from extremes validates the support zone. While RSI stays below the 50 midline, suggesting bearish momentum dominance, the swift exit from oversold territory implies underlying strength. Overbought conditions (>70) have reliably preceded pullbacks throughout 2025.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March low (≈131) and July high (456.45), key retracement levels emerge: 38.2% (335.50), 50% (293.75), and 61.8% (252.00). Price is stabilizing near the 38.2% retracement. More relevantly, the 50% retracement of the June-August decline (456.45 to 365.70) at 411.10 aligns with the July 31 breakdown level, creating a major technical resistance confluence.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Strong support confluence exists at 365-375, validated by: 1) KDJ oversold reversal, 2) Bollinger lower band, 3) volume-backed price reversal, and 4) Fibonacci 38.2% anchor. Resistance near 410-415 gathers significance from the 50% retracement, 50-day SMA, and high-volume breakdown point. Notable bearish divergence occurred in late July when price made lower highs while RSI and MACD failed to confirm. The current alignment of KDJ bullish crossover, candlestick reversal pattern, and volume support suggests near-term upside bias, though MACD's lagging recovery warrants caution. A decisive break above 395 (August 4 high) would increase confidence in retesting 410 resistance.