MicroStrategy Jumps 5% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Strategy (MSTR) closed at $338.41 on October 1, 2025, registering a 5.03% gain on elevated volume of 13.99 million shares. The session’s price action established an intraday high of $343.73 and low of $331.20, demonstrating strong bullish momentum as the stock rebounded from recent support levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal critical price structure dynamics. The October 1 session formed a robust bullish candle that fully engulfed the prior day’s bearish body, signaling reversal conviction. Key support now resides near $292–$300 (September 25 low), while resistance materializes around $345–$353 (September 19 high and 50-day moving average). The rejection of sub-$300 levels on September 25–26 established a double-bottom pattern, validated by the subsequent 15% recovery.
Moving Average Theory
Moving averages reflect a persisting downtrend but show nascent stabilization signals. The 50-day SMA ($355) crossed bearishly below the 100-day SMA ($378) in mid-September, confirming intermediate-term weakness. However, the October 1 close above the 200-day SMA ($335) denotes critical long-term support. While the 50/100-day death cross maintains downward pressure, the 200-day’s defense suggests basing potential. Price remains below all key short-term averages, requiring a clearance of $345 (50-day SMA) to signal trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a potential bullish inflection with its histogram ascending toward the zero line after six weeks in negative territory. The signal line convergence suggests waning bearish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (K: 25 → 65, D: 20 → 55) during the recovery rally. Both indicators show early confirmation of upside momentum, though MACD remains in negative territory. No bearish divergence is evident, supporting the rebound’s technical legitimacy.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction preceded the latest breakout. Bands narrowed to a 4% width in late September (vs. 8% mid-month), reflecting diminished selling pressure. The October 1 close pierced the upper band ($337), triggering a volatility expansion signal. Such breakouts typically resolve directionally, suggesting near-term upside follow-through. The band midline ($320) now serves as pullback support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate the recovery’s credibility. The September 25 capitulation low at $292.36 occurred on 22.1 million shares (year’s 2nd highest volume), denoting panic selling exhaustion. Subsequent rallies have occurred on expanding volume (13.9M shares on October 1 vs. 7.8M on September 30), confirming accumulation. The 10-day volume EMA turned upward, signaling strengthening participation in the advance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory (29.6 on September 25) to 58.7 by October 1, crossing its signal line bullishly. While not yet overbought, its momentum surge aligns with price recovery. The RSI’s higher low against price’s higher low on September 29 established positive divergence, forewarning the current rebound. Extended consolidation would be constructive before challenging overbought thresholds.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the July 18–September 25 decline ($454 → $292), key retracement zones emerge. The 38.2% level at $356 capped recovery attempts in late September. The 50% level at $373 aligns with the 100-day SMA and represents the next significant resistance. Current strength suggests potential testing of this zone. Should pullbacks materialize, the 23.6% retracement ($316) and swing low support ($300) provide logical downside buffers.
Confluence Points and Divergences
Confluence of the 200-day SMA ($335), September 25 swing low ($292), and Bollinger midline ($320) established a high-probability support cluster that halted the downtrend. No material divergences exist among core indicators—MACD, RSI, volume, and KDJ synchronously confirm upside momentum. However, the resistance confluence near $352–$356 (50-day SMA + 38.2% Fibonacci + Sept 19 high) remains a critical technical barrier for sustained recovery. A decisive close above $356 would neutralize the intermediate bearish structure.