MicroStrategy's Index Delisting Risk and Its Implications for MSTR's Path to $200: Assessing Structural Risks Versus Long-Term Bitcoin Exposure Potential

MicroStrategy (MSTR), now rebranded as Strategy, has become a lightning rod in the intersection of traditional finance and cryptocurrency. As of November 26, 2025, its stock closed at $175.64, a 2.00% increase from the prior day, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traded at $87,310.33 according to market data, reflecting a broader market correction. However, the company's future trajectory hinges on two critical factors: the looming risk of index delisting and its long-term bet on Bitcoin. This analysis evaluates how these structural risks and opportunities could shape MSTR's path to $200-and beyond.

Structural Risks: Index Delisting and Liquidity Pressures

MicroStrategy's inclusion in major indices like the Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell 3000 has bolstered its visibility and liquidity. Yet, its heavy exposure to Bitcoin-nearly $9 billion in crypto assets-places it at odds with evolving index criteria. MSCI, a key benchmark provider, is considering excluding firms where digital assets constitute 50% or more of total assets. If enacted, this rule could remove Strategy from the MSCI USA Benchmark and Nasdaq 100, triggering up to $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows. JPMorgan has warned that such a delisting would exacerbate liquidity challenges, as nearly 70% of MSTR's stock is held by index-linked funds.

The risk is compounded by the fact that MSTR's business model resembles a leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicle rather than a traditional operating company. While it has met S&P 500 eligibility criteria, historical precedent suggests index committees may exclude firms lacking conventional revenue streams. A delisting would not only depress the stock price but also erode institutional credibility, further straining its market-to-NAV ratio, which recently dipped to 0.977x.

Long-Term Bitcoin Exposure: A Double-Edged Sword

Despite these risks, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin treasury remains a cornerstone of its strategy. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has dismissed concerns about trimming crypto holdings, stating the company has "accelerated its purchases" during the recent selloff. Saylor's bullish outlook-predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end 2025-aligns with Wall Street analysts' "Strong Buy" consensus, which targets a mean price of $542 for MSTR, implying over 170% upside.

Bitcoin's price forecasts for 2025 are mixed. Optimistic scenarios, such as a resurgence in ETF buying or macroeconomic tailwinds, could push BTC to $130,000–$140,000. Pessimistic views, like Tom Lee's revised target of "above $100,000" reflect macroeconomic uncertainties, reflect macroeconomic uncertainties. However, MicroStrategy's financial resilience-demonstrated by 71 years of dividend coverage even if Bitcoin remains flat-suggests the company is positioned to weather volatility.

Balancing the Equation: Can MSTR Reach $200?

The path to $200 for MSTR is contingent on two variables: Bitcoin's price trajectory and the outcome of MSCI's delisting decision. If Bitcoin rebounds to $130,000 by year-end, MSTR's net asset value (NAV) would rise significantly, potentially propelling its stock above $200. Conversely, a prolonged bear market or index exclusion could depress the stock, especially if passive outflows exceed $2.8 billion.

However, the company's strategic advantages cannot be ignored. Its unique positioning as a publicly traded Bitcoin vehicle has attracted speculative and institutional demand. Moreover, Saylor's aggressive buying during dips-such as the recent $87,000 BTC price-signals confidence in the asset's long-term value. Analysts argue that MSTR's leverage to Bitcoin's price action, combined with its financial durability, could outperform traditional equities in a crypto recovery.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

MicroStrategy's journey to $200 is a high-stakes gamble between structural risks and Bitcoin's potential. While index delisting and liquidity pressures pose immediate threats, the company's unwavering commitment to its crypto treasury and Saylor's bullish vision offer a compelling counter-narrative. Investors must weigh the short-term volatility of delisting against the long-term upside of a Bitcoin rebound. For those who believe in the digital asset's future, MSTR remains a speculative but strategically positioned play-even as the clock ticks toward MSCI's January 15, 2026, decision which could determine its future.