MicroStrategy Extends Slide With 7.86% Two-Day Drop As Technicals Signal Entrenched Weakness

Strategy (MSTR) declined by 4.84% in the latest session, extending a two-day losing streak to 7.86%. This analysis evaluates the stock’s technical posture through multiple frameworks, highlighting key confluences and divergences.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions exhibit bearish continuation patterns. The 2025-10-10 candle closed near its low (304.79 vs. high of 323.43), forming a long upper wick that signals rejection at higher levels. This follows a bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-10-07, where a sharp decline (-8.70%) absorbed prior gains. Key resistance now sits at ¥330-¥335 (recent consolidation zone), while support emerges near ¥303 (current low) and ¥290 (July 2025 trough). The breach of the ¥318 pivot on 2025-10-09 confirmed downside momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (currently ¥345) crossed below the 100-day SMA (¥352) in late September, signaling bearish near-term momentum. The 200-day SMA (¥355) caps upside attempts, with the latest close at ¥304.79 positioned below all three major averages. This configuration suggests entrenched weakness. Price action now tests the 200-day SMA as resistance—a decisive close above it is needed to alleviate downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish momentum acceleration, with the signal line diverging below the histogram since early October. KDJ oscillators are deeply oversold (K-value: 18, D-value: 22), but no bullish crossover is evident. While these readings suggest exhaustion, they remain in "falling knife" territory. A notable divergence exists as price made lower lows in October, yet KDJ’s prior oversold extreme in June was followed by a 23% rally—caution is warranted against premature reversal calls.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the October decline, reflecting rising volatility. Price is pinned near the lower band (¥308), typically indicative of oversold conditions. The bandwidth expansion after September’s squeeze favors continuation of the current trend. However, a sustained close below the lower band increases risk of consolidation before further downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Downside volume validation is evident: the 2025-10-07 sell-off (-8.70%) occurred on the year’s second-highest volume (19.58M shares), confirming distribution. Recent sessions show above-average volume (13.6M vs. 14.0M 50-day avg), supporting bearish momentum. Any reversal attempt would require volume expansion on up days to signal accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has plunged to 28, entering oversold territory after a two-month downtrend. While this matches oversold signals preceding rallies (e.g., late June 2025 bounce from RSI 30), it coincides with strong momentum. Traders should note RSI can remain oversold during extended declines—divergence against price is absent, limiting reversal confidence.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the rally from June’s low (¥367.42) to October’s high (¥359.69): the 61.8% retracement (¥318) was breached decisively. The 78.6% level (¥302) now aligns with current support. A breakdown exposes the ¥290–¥285 zone (June swing low). Resistance converges at the 50% retracement (¥334), overlapping with the 200-day SMA.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Critical confluence exists near ¥302, where Fibonacci support, Bollinger’s lower band, and oversold oscillators align. However, sustained closes below this level may trigger accelerated selling toward ¥285. Divergence is observed between oversold oscillators (KDJ/RSI) and unresolved bearish structure (MACD, moving averages). Volume patterns lack reversal catalysts. While deeply oversold conditions support potential tactical bounces, the trend remains downward without decisive reconquest of the 200-day SMA or volume-backed accumulation.