Microsoft Rises 0.13% to $513.24 Amid Strong Technical Support at $510

Microsoft (MSFT) rose 0.13% to close at $513.24 on July 30, 2025, marking a second consecutive daily gain and a cumulative 0.14% advance over this period. This upward movement occurs against the backdrop of a broader technical context that warrants examination through multiple analytical frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal a consolidation pattern above the key $505-$510 support zone, established after the July 22 hammer candle at $505.27 that halted a prior decline. The July 25 bullish engulfing pattern following this low reinforced support, though resistance near $518.29 has capped subsequent advances. Critical levels to monitor include psychological resistance at $520 and the multi-month trendline support around $500.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA near $509 provides immediate support, aligning with the July 22 reaction low. Significantly, MSFT maintains position above both the 100-day ($491) and 200-day ($443) moving averages, confirming the primary uptrend. The ascending order of these averages (50 > 100 > 200) reflects sustained bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows modest positive momentum, with the signal line hovering near equilibrium after a recent bullish crossover. Meanwhile, the KDJ’s %K (60) and %D (58) reside in neutral territory. Neither oscillator currently signals overbought conditions (KDJ %J at 64), though the absence of decisive momentum divergence leaves room for trend continuation.
Bollinger Bands
A notable band contraction throughout late July signaled reduced volatility, with price testing the upper band at recent highs near $518. Current trading near the middle band ($510) suggests moderate bullish pressure without immediate breakout risks. Expansion beyond the 2% bandwidth would signal impending directional volatility.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends warrant caution: The July 25 surge to $518 occurred on 19.1M shares, but subsequent highs have seen diminishing participation (16.4M on July 29). This divergence suggests weakening conviction near resistance. Supportive volume appeared at the $505 low (13.8M shares), reinforcing that level’s technical significance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 62, reflecting neutral conditions despite the recent uptick. It holds comfortably above oversold territory but remains below the 70 overbought threshold. This positioning allows potential upside without immediate reversal risk, though its failure to exceed the July high of 65 during recent gains hints at latent bearish divergence.
Fibonacci Retracement
Tracing the swing low from $477.40 (June 20) to the $518.29 high (July 25) reveals key Fib levels. The 61.8% retracement at $505.05 precisely aligned with the July 22 reversal. Current price action navigates between the 38.2% ($503) and 23.6% ($510) levels, with a sustained break above $510.50 required to challenge the all-time high. The confluence of the 50-day EMA and 23.6% Fib at $510 reinforces this level’s technical importance.
Confluence of the $510 support (Fibonacci 23.6%, 50-day EMA, and prior consolidation zone) presents a critical technical anchor. Divergence between price’s approach to July highs and softer volume warrants vigilance, though the unified alignment of moving averages and MACD’s neutral-positive stance currently dominates the technical narrative. Probabilistically, bullish momentum appears sustainable above $510, while failure here may trigger retests of the $505 Fibonacci stronghold.