Microsoft's Quantum Chip: A New Threat to Bitcoin's Security

Microsoft's new quantum computing chip, Majorana 1, launched on February 19, has sparked discussions about its potential impact on Bitcoin's security. The chip, which joins other advancements in quantum computing by companies like Google, has raised concerns about the timeline for making Bitcoin quantum-resistant.

According to Bitcoin exchange River, while a crypto-threatening quantum computing breakthrough is still years away, the new chip could potentially shorten that timeline. River estimates that a 1-million qubit quantum computer could crack Bitcoin addresses via a long-range attack if run for several days to weeks. This breakthrough, they argue, shortens the timeline to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant, emphasizing the importance of addressing vulnerabilities early.

However, critics of the quantum threat theory argue that it is overblown. They suggest that a cryptography-cracking quantum computer would likely target banking giants and other traditional targets before Bitcoin, given the significantly larger assets held by banks. As of 2023, all the world's banks held more than $188 trillion in assets, compared to the current crypto market capitalization of $3.2 trillion.

Moreover, some industry experts believe that advancements in quantum computing could be used to strengthen the Bitcoin network. Adam Back, a notable cryptographer, expects post-quantum signature research to produce well-reviewed, more compact signatures that Bitcoin can add to the network. Some even suggest that it could be a hundred years before quantum computing becomes a threat.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin community is already working on solutions to address the potential quantum threat. Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor's Podcast Network, mentioned BIP-360 as a proposed solution that could be rolled out via a soft fork. BIP-360 aims to transition Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant structure by replacing vulnerable signature methods.

Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, agreed that a quantum threat to Bitcoin is not a near-term problem. However, he argued that the argument that the entire banking system could break before Bitcoin is flawed. Centralized financial institutions implement multiple layers of security beyond public key cryptography, while a Bitcoin quantum attack would only require knowledge of the Bitcoin public key.