Why Microsoft, Meta, and ASML Are the Top 2026 Stock Split Contenders

The stock market's fascination with corporate splits has resurfaced in 2025 as investors speculate on whether Microsoft, Meta, and ASML-the titans of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and semiconductor manufacturing-will follow the trend set by peers like Nvidia and Amazon. A stock split, while not altering a company's intrinsic value, can reshape investor psychology and market accessibility. For these three firms, the calculus of share price, retail participation, and growth narratives makes them prime candidates for splits in 2026.

Microsoft: A Long-Overdue Reset for AI's Poster Child

Microsoft's stock price of $490 as of late 2025 has become a barrier to retail participation, despite the company's dominance in AI and cloud computing. The last split occurred in 2003, and analysts now speculate a 5-for-1 split could bring the share price down to $98, aligning with the pattern of recent AI-era splits. This move would democratize ownership, particularly for younger investors, while signaling confidence in Microsoft's trajectory. Morgan Stanley's recent upgrade of Microsoft to a "Top Pick" underscores its growth potential, with Azure revenue surging 39% and operating margins expanding. However, the stock has underperformed the Nasdaq index during the AI boom, suggesting a split could rekindle retail enthusiasm and institutional interest.

Meta: Balancing AI Ambition with Investor Skepticism

Meta's aggressive investments in AI infrastructure, including superintelligence, have fueled volatility and skepticism. While ad revenue growth remains robust, Oppenheimer's downgrade to "Perform" highlights concerns about capital expenditures and ROI on AI bets. A stock split could address Meta's elevated share price, which has limited retail participation despite its pivotal role in the AI ecosystem. By reducing the cost per share, Meta could attract a broader investor base, countering narratives of overvaluation. The company's recent combined capex of $430 billion with peers like Microsoft and Amazon signals a commitment to growth, but a split would need to align with clearer ROI metrics to restore investor confidence.

ASML: A $1,000+ Share Price and the Lithography Giant's Dilemma

ASML's stock, trading above $1,000, has surged 48.6% in 2025, driven by its leadership in advanced lithography. Yet, this valuation has sparked debates about overpayment. DCF analyses suggest the stock is overvalued by 37.1% to 42.2%, while its 37.2x PE ratio remains contentious. A stock split would lower the share price, potentially broadening retail appeal and mitigating concerns about accessibility. Despite no announced plans since its 2007 split no announced plans since its 2007 split, ASML's market capitalization and growth in semiconductor demand make it a logical candidate for a 2026 split. Retail investor sentiment is mixed, with bullish estimates pegging a fair value at €1,000 and bearish ones at €865 reflecting the tension between geopolitical risks and technological optimism.

Investor Psychology and Market Accessibility: The Split Equation

Retail participation in the U.S. stock market hit a record of $10.08 billion in July 2025, with Microsoft among the most widely held stocks by individual investors according to data. High share prices, while a symbol of success, can deter new investors, particularly in high-growth sectors where affordability is key. For Microsoft, a 5-for-1 split would mirror the strategies of Nvidia and Amazon, which used splits to maintain retail engagement during valuation surges. Similarly, ASML's $1,000+ price tag risks alienating smaller investors, even as institutional demand remains strong. A split would not only enhance liquidity but also serve as a psychological reset, reinforcing the perception of value in a market wary of overvaluation.

Conclusion: 2026 as the Year of the Split

The convergence of AI-driven growth, retail investor dynamics, and valuation pressures positions Microsoft, Meta, and ASML as the most likely candidates for 2026 splits. For Microsoft, a split could reinvigorate its market position after two decades without one. Meta's split would need to address sustainability concerns, while ASML's move would balance its semiconductor dominance with accessibility. As the Nasdaq's AI-era darlings, these companies' decisions will shape investor psychology and market accessibility in the coming year.