Microsoft AI Study Flags 40 High-Risk Knowledge-Based Jobs

Microsoft researchers have identified 40 occupations at high risk of being impacted by generative AI, with knowledge-based jobs facing the most immediate exposure. The findings suggest that even roles traditionally considered stable, such as teaching and those requiring a college degree, are not immune to automation. Translators, historians, customer service representatives, and sales professionals top the list of AI-vulnerable positions, as their tasks align closely with current AI capabilities [1].

The study, based on 200,000 real-world interactions with Copilot users, highlights how AI is reshaping the job market. Jobs in office settings, particularly those involving administrative, computational, and communication tasks, are most susceptible to disruption. For instance, roles like public relations specialists, editors, and technical writers are increasingly at risk, given the efficiency with which AI can draft, analyze, and disseminate information [1].

In contrast, positions that require manual operation of heavy machinery or infrastructure maintenance show minimal AI exposure. The top 10 least affected jobs include dredge operators, bridge and lock tenders, and water treatment plant operators, primarily due to their reliance on physical, hands-on labor [1]. This suggests that while AI is redefining office work, it has yet to replace roles that require direct interaction with physical systems.

The impact of AI is also challenging long-standing assumptions about educational safeguards. Many high-risk professions, such as political scientists, journalists, and management analysts, typically require a four-year degree. The research indicates that higher education is no longer a guaranteed shield against job displacement. In fact, the report found higher AI applicability for roles requiring a bachelor’s degree compared to those with lower educational prerequisites [1].

Meanwhile, certain sectors are witnessing growth despite the AI threat. The healthcare industry, particularly roles involving home health and personal care, is expected to create significant employment opportunities in the coming decade. This underscores the uneven impact of AI across different fields [1].

Business leaders have acknowledged the inevitability of AI integration. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that while AI may not directly replace jobs, it will enable others to outperform traditional workers. “You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI,” Huang stated at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference [1].

The report also highlights how AI is influencing younger generations entering the workforce. In response to recent tech industry layoffs, many Gen Z graduates have turned to fields like education for stability. However, the study reveals that even teaching roles—specifically those in farm and home management, economics, and business education—are at high risk of AI disruption [1].

The researchers caution that their analysis focuses solely on large language models (LLMs), and further automation could arise from other AI applications. For example, AI could impact jobs involving machinery operation, such as truck driving, beyond what is currently measured [1].

The top 40 most affected occupations include a broad range of knowledge workers, from interpreters and translators to market research analysts and public safety telecommunicators, reflecting the versatility of generative AI in handling information-based tasks. Conversely, the 10 least affected roles continue to rely on physical labor and direct equipment operation, offering a glimpse into the types of jobs that remain resilient to AI advancement [1].

Sources:

[1] Microsoft Research on Generative AI and Occupational Impact (https://fortune.com/2025/07/31/microsoft-research-generative-ai-occupational-impact-jobs-most-and-least-likely-to-steal-teaching-office-jobs-college-gen-z-grads/)