Micron Technology (MU) shares declined 3.97% to $117.21 in the latest session, extending a two-day losing streak that has resulted in a 5.13% drawdown. This downward momentum warrants a multi-faceted technical assessment of the semiconductor stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory The recent price action shows a decisive bearish breakout. The August 20 candle formed a long-bodied red marubozu, closing near its low ($113.46–$118.91 range) after breaking below the prior session’s low of $121.31. This confirms a breakdown from consolidation near $123–$124 resistance, now establishing immediate resistance at $118.91–$121.31. Critical support emerges near $113.46, coinciding with the August low. A sustained breach below this level would signal continuation of the downtrend.
Moving Average Theory The 50-day moving average (approx. $116.50 based on recent closes) has been violated decisively, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The 100-day MA (approx. $109.20) and 200-day MA (approx. $102.80) remain ascending below the current price, indicating the primary trend is still technically bullish. However, the death cross formation—where the 50-day crossed below the 100-day MA three weeks ago—suggests medium-term consolidation. The converging MAs between $109–$117 could become dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below the signal line, with histogram bars expanding negatively—indicating accelerating downward momentum. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator (particularly the %K line) has plunged below 30 into oversold territory. While KDJ implies potential exhaustion, the MACD’s lack of bullish divergence suggests no reversal confirmation yet. This divergence between oversold KDJ and bearish MACD momentum warrants caution.
Bollinger Bands Price has broken below the 20-period lower
Band ($119.60 estimate), typically signaling an oversold condition. However, the bands expanded sharply during the sell-off, indicating volatility-driven downside continuation rather than reversion. The bandwidth expansion after a prolonged contraction phase (August 11–19) validates the breakdown. A close back inside the bands is needed to suggest stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship The bearish move is validated by surging volume. Trading volume on August 20 reached 25.7 million shares—115% above the 10-day average—confirming strong selling conviction. Distribution patterns emerged earlier, with volume swelling during declines (August 15: 18.9 million shares) while fading during minor recoveries (August 18: 12.2 million). This persistent volume-pressure imbalance strengthens the bearish case.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The 14-day RSI has plummeted to 31, entering oversold territory. While an RSI <30 often precedes technical rebounds, it has yet to exhibit bullish divergence against price. The indicator also formed a lower high during the August price consolidation, preceding the breakdown—a bearish warning. History shows
can remain oversold for extended periods during momentum-driven declines.
Fibonacci Retracement Applying Fibonacci levels to the July 31 low ($94.72) and August 18 high ($123.68) reveals critical thresholds. The recent close ($117.21) hovers near the 61.8% retracement ($117.12), which now provides initial support. The 50% level at $116.97 was breached intraday, while the 38.2% retracement ($116.82) now acts as resistance. A sustained break below 61.8% opens risk to the 78.6% retracement at $114.96, aligning with the August 20 low.
Confluence & Outlook Multiple technical signals converge at $113.46–$117.12: the 61.8% Fibonacci zone, August swing low, and Bollinger Band overshoot. This region must hold to prevent a deeper pullback toward the 100-day MA ($109.20). While oversold KDJ and RSI readings hint at near-term consolidation potential, bearish confirmation from volume, MACD, and candlestick breakdowns outweighs reversal signals. Resistance now tiers at $118.91 (August 20 high) and $121.31 (prior support). Investors should monitor for stabilization above $116.50–$117.12 before considering recovery potential.
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