Micron Stock: A High-Conviction Buy as AI and HBM Supercharge Earnings Momentum

The memory sector is in the throes of a historic "supercycle," and Micron Technology (MU) is positioned at the epicenter of this transformation. With AI-driven demand surging and HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) adoption accelerating, the company has delivered record results in Q3 and Q4 2025, far outpacing expectations. As the December 17 earnings release looms, the case for a buy is compelling, supported by robust earnings momentum, undervaluation relative to peers, and a clear path to sustained growth in the AI era.

AI-Driven Demand: The New Gold Rush for Memory

, a record fueled by AI and data center demand. This momentum carried into Q4, where .

. The company's leadership emphasized that AI's impact extends beyond HBM to broader memory products, creating a "multiyear tailwind" for growth.

HBM, in particular, is a standout. For Q4, HBM revenue reached $2 billion, accounting for 17% of total revenue. This segment is being driven by hyperscalers and AI infrastructure providers, which require high-performance memory to train and deploy large language models. technology, now in mass production, , solidifying its leadership in this critical market. Analysts project HBM , .

Beat-and-Raise Potential: Earnings Momentum Unstoppable

Micron's recent results have consistently exceeded expectations. In Q4, the company beat consensus revenue estimates . This trend is likely to continue. For Q1 2026, . Analysts are even more bullish, .

The company's ability to raise prices and margins is another tailwind. Tight DRAM supply and improved NAND conditions have bolstered profitability, while product structure optimization (shifting toward higher-margin HBM and enterprise SSDs) has further amplified margins. Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2026 EPS forecast . HSBC, which initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating, , citing Micron's "structural growth in AI and HBM" as a key catalyst.

Valuation: A Bargain in a High-Margin Sector

Despite its outperformance, Micron remains significantly undervalued relative to peers. At current valuations, it trades at a discount to Nvidia and AMD, even though it is the "picks and shovels" provider for AI infrastructure. The company's forward P/E ratio , , despite generating stable cash flows and benefiting from secular demand.

Moreover, Micron's capital allocation strategy is strengthening its long-term position. The company raised its 2026 capex budget , with a focus on 1-gamma DRAM, HBM4/HBM4E expansion, and new fabs under the U.S. CHIPS program. These investments are expected to secure pricing power and market share as AI demand accelerates.

Conclusion: A No-Brainer Buy Ahead of Earnings

With AI and HBM driving a memory supercycle, Micron is delivering on both top-line and bottom-line growth. The company's earnings momentum, coupled with favorable supply-demand dynamics and an attractive valuation, makes it a high-conviction buy ahead of its December 17 report. Analysts are already penciling in another beat-and-raise scenario, and the long-term fundamentals-led by HBM's explosive growth and enterprise AI adoption-justify a premium valuation. For investors seeking exposure to the AI revolution, Micron is the ultimate "must-own" stock.