Microchip’s 6.59% Rally Drives 684% Gains with RSI14 Strategy Despite 200th Market Activity Rank

Microchip Technology (MCHP) surged 6.59% on October 13, 2025, with a trading volume of $530 million—down 30.53% from the previous day—ranking 200th in market activity. The stock’s performance followed strategic trading signals based on an RSI14 indicator, which triggered entry points when the metric fell below 30. Positions were closed within a single session, emphasizing short-term rebounds from intraday weakness. This approach generated a cumulative return of 684% from January 2022 to October 13, 2025, despite a 61% maximum drawdown during the period.

The strategy’s annualized return of approximately 70% outperformed a buy-and-hold approach for NVIDIA over the same timeframe. However, a Sharpe ratio of ~1.28 highlighted the strategy’s volatility. Signal frequency remained low due to strict entry criteria, with trades executed only when the RSI14 met the oversold threshold. No stop-loss or take-profit mechanisms were applied, leaving outcomes dependent on market momentum and intraday price swings.

Performance was driven by rapid rebounds from extreme intraday weakness, aligning with the strategy’s focus on short-term rebounds. The back-test results confirmed that gains were concentrated in a limited number of high-impact trades, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward nature of the approach. Default settings included an RSI14 < 30 threshold and a one-day holding period for all trades, with exits enforced the day after entry. Adjustments to thresholds or risk controls could refine the strategy’s risk-return profile.

The back-test produced a cumulative return of 684% from Jan-2022 to 13-Oct-2025, with a 61% maximum drawdown. Annualized returns (~70%) exceeded buy-and-hold benchmarks for NVDA, though the Sharpe ratio (~1.28) indicated elevated volatility. All trades closed after one session, emphasizing sharp rebounds from intraday weakness, and signal frequency remained relatively low.