"Michael Wilson de Morgan Stanley recomienda aprovechar la caída del S&P 500 debido a sólidas perspectivas de ganancias y recortes fiscales".

Michael Wilson de Morgan Stanley recomienda aprovechar la caída del S&P 500 debido a sólidas perspectivas de ganancias para el próximo año. Aunque el debilitamiento del mercado laboral y la inflación relacionada con los aranceles podrían retrasar los recortes de tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal, Wilson ve una oportunidad de compra en cualquier retroceso. La temporada de resultados del segundo trimestre ha resultado mejor de lo esperado, con empresas del S&P 500 en camino de registrar un aumento del 9.1% en sus ganancias.

Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson believes the S&P 500 could rally to 7,200 by mid-2026, citing a “rolling recovery” in earnings and supportive macro trends [1]. Wilson, in a note published Monday, wrote that the market capitulation seen in April marked “the end of a rolling earnings recession that began in 2022.” He expects earnings growth to remain solid, with Morgan Stanley’s non-PMI earnings model pointing to mid-teens EPS growth. Wilson also highlighted several tailwinds, including positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the OBBBA, easy growth comparisons, pent-up demand, and a high probability of Fed cuts by Q1 2026. He expects the historically sharp inflection in earnings revisions breadth to confirm this process is underway, with the probability of achieving the bull case increasing. Among sectors, Wilson reiterated his preference for Industrials, citing durable earnings revisions, stable capacity utilization, and rising C&I loans. Despite acknowledging risks such as elevated back-end rates, tariff-related inflation, and softening seasonals, Wilson expects any pullbacks to be shallow and remains a “buyer of dips.”

Additionally, Morgan Stanley analysts have expressed optimism about Disney’s earnings growth potential. The firm raised its price target to $140 per share and kept its overweight rating, forecasting about 20% upside from Friday's close [2]. Analyst Benjamin Swinburne expects Disney to generate healthy double-digit adjusted EPS growth in the years ahead, driven by growth in its Experiences and Streaming businesses. The analyst noted that Disney has already made the pivot in its media earnings base, with growth in streaming and content sales more than offsetting a flattish ESPN and declining Linear Entertainment segment. Shares have ticked up about 5% in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has laid the groundwork for resuming interest rate hikes, signaling a shift in its inflation bias and less gloomy view on the impact of U.S. tariffs [3]. While the BOJ removed the word "extremely" in describing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, it also highlighted the risk of persistent food price rises leading to broad-based inflation. The BOJ’s quarterly report underscores its resolve to pull the trigger once it is convinced the damage from higher levies will be within its expectations.

Morgan Stanley analysts remain confident in the rally, pointing to solid earnings growth as a key driver [4]. Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief US stock strategist, wrote that the plunge to the brink of a bear market back in April may have marked the end of a “rolling earnings recession” over the last three years. He expects the backdrop for stocks to look much better, with relatively easy year-over-year comparisons and the chance that the Fed cuts early next year.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-says-7200-105859452.html
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/disney-can-see-big-earnings-growth-ahead-that-will-power-the-stock-higher-says-morgan-stanley.html
[3] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3TT07G:0-boj-gears-up-to-hike-rates-again-but-leaves-free-hand-on-timing/
[4] https://sherwood.news/markets/morgan-stanley-analyst-confidence-in-the-rally-earnings/