Michael Saylor Reiterates Bitcoin Tracker Info, Hinting at Another BTC Purchase

Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy Inc., is expected to report a multibillion-dollar loss in Q4 due to the 24% drop in Bitcoin prices. This follows a $2.8 billion profit in the previous quarter. The company holds roughly $60 billion in Bitcoin, and its fair value accounting policy requires it to mark to market its crypto holdings.

The loss is a reversal for a firm that has become synonymous with leveraged Bitcoin accumulation. Strategy Inc. has been buying Bitcoin aggressively for over five years, using debt to increase its stockpile. However, the recent market downturn has exposed the risks of this strategy, with some investors questioning its sustainability.

A key factor behind the loss is the firm’s shift to fair value accounting. This policy, adopted in Q1 2025, means unrealized gains and losses are immediately reflected in the company’s earnings. While this increased transparency, it also makes the firm more sensitive to Bitcoin’s volatile swings.

What Caused the Q4 Loss?

Bitcoin’s price fell from $114,100 to $88,700 in Q4, leading to a sharp decline in the value of Strategy’s holdings. The firm’s unrealized loss is estimated to be in the range of $7 billion to $9.5 billion, depending on Bitcoin’s final price for the year.

The accounting rule change was meant to provide a clearer picture of the company’s financial position. But it has also led to a sharp drop in the firm’s market premium. Previously, Strategy traded at a significant multiple to its net asset value (NAV). Now, its enterprise value is close to matching the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

The drop in the stock price has raised concerns about Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations. With Bitcoin producing no yield and the software business generating limited cash flow, investors are worried about how the firm will service its debt and pay dividends.

What Is the Market Reaction to Strategy’s Shifts?

The broader market has shown renewed interest in crypto assets. U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded $670 million in inflows on January 2, the first trading day of 2026. Bitcoin ETFs led the charge, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust capturing $287 million in new capital.

This suggests that institutional investors are shifting back to crypto after a period of tax-loss harvesting in late 2025. Ethereum and smaller altcoins also saw strong inflows, indicating a broad-based recovery in the sector.

At the same time, a major anonymous investor known as a 'crypto whale' converted $44.3 million in Ethereum to Bitcoin. The transaction involved 14,145 WETH being swapped for 492 WBTC, executed at an average price of $90,014 per BTC. This move highlights ongoing shifts in portfolio allocations among large-scale crypto investors.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely following Bitcoin’s performance and how Strategy Inc. manages its leverage. The firm has taken steps to improve its liquidity by selling shares and raising a cash reserve of $2.19 billion by early January 2026.

Strategy also updated its full-year earnings guidance, assuming a year-end Bitcoin price range of $85,000 to $110,000. If Bitcoin falls below $85,000, the firm could face a deeper loss. Conversely, if it rises above $110,000, it may see a significant turnaround in its earnings.

Some analysts suggest that the firm could pivot further toward data and AI infrastructure. Strategy’s New Year message emphasized a shift toward AI and data strategy, with a focus on helping companies streamline operations and unlock insights.

The Bitcoin market remains highly volatile. While Strategy Inc. has profited from previous bull runs, the current downturn has exposed the risks of its leveraged strategy. The firm’s ability to maintain its position without selling Bitcoin will be a key focus for investors.

The broader market appears more optimistic. With inflows into crypto ETFs and a crypto whale’s recent reallocation, there are signs that Bitcoin is regaining institutional interest. However, long-term success for Strategy may depend on its ability to diversify beyond crypto and into more stable revenue streams.