Michael Green: Passive Investing Is a Rigged Game—And the Crash Will Be Ugly

Michael Green has a knack for saying the quiet part out loud. As Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management , with nearly three decades of experience across Soros Fund Management, Canyon Capital, and Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro, Green has earned a reputation as one of the most original market thinkers working today. His research has been presented to the Fed, the IMF, and the BIS. His Substack, Yes, I Give a Fig , has become required reading for investors who want market theory stripped of jargon and delivered with candor.

In the latest episode of Capital & Power with Adam Shapiro, Green unleashes a series of provocative arguments that connect Wall Street mechanics to kitchen-table economics and the politics reshaping America.

Passive investing: the engine of fragility

Green argues that what most of us call “passive” investing isn’t really passive at all. “You are investing in a systematic algorithmic strategy that simply says, did you give me cash? If so, then buy. Did you ask for cash? If so, then sell.” That simple formula, he explains, erases active judgment, reinforces momentum, and kills the natural mean reversion that keeps markets healthy.

The result is an artificially inflated market that feels safe—until it isn’t. “That creates the conditions of a crash. And unfortunately, everybody wakes up from a… beautiful dream and says, wait, I don’t have nearly the resources that I thought.” For Green, this isn’t just another correction waiting to happen—it’s systemic risk baked into the structure of modern markets.

H-1B visas: a broken promise

Shapiro pressed Green on immigration policy, specifically the controversial proposal to raise H-1B visa fees to $100,000. Green didn’t dodge. He explained how the visa lottery has been captured by foreign consulting firms flooding the system with applications, undercutting U.S. graduates. “We’ve actually created a system that deeply disadvantages those in the United States who are pursuing a university degree in things like STEM,” he said.

His solution: a reverse Dutch auction to allocate the limited visas, raising billions that could fund scholarships and student debt relief. In his framing, it’s not xenophobia—it’s about fairness. “This is a scarce public good. Access to the U.S. labor force should be priced accordingly.”

Politics: Mamdani and the pull of populism

Turning to New York City’s mayoral race, Green dissected the rise of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani. Stagnant wages and soaring costs, he said, explain the appeal. “Those who are uniquely disadvantaged… are trapped in a system in which they are paid less than is required to meaningfully participate in society.”

But Green is clear-eyed about the risks. Rent freezes and redistribution, he warns, may make the city’s problems worse. More troubling, he sees the potential for creeping authoritarianism. “Do I think New York will be better under Mondami? No, I think it'll actually be worse… it opens up an avenue for an individual like Mamdani to say the problem is I don't have enough executive authority, give me more power, then I'll solve the problem.”

Sherwin-Williams and your 401(k)

The most visceral part of the interview may be Green’s takedown of Sherwin-Williams for eliminating its 401(k) match. He calls the match one of the few near-guaranteed wealth builders left for American workers. “I’m getting 100% return on my investment before I even get started.” For a company that made $2.5 billion in profit and repurchased over $1 billion in stock, cutting a benefit that might cost $200 million struck him as indefensible. “It felt completely inappropriate in an environment in which households are increasingly stressed in their ability to save for retirement.”

He’s not calling for boycotts—but he’s not buying their paint either. “My argument is that I personally will not.” The broader point is clear: when corporations prioritize buybacks over benefits, they may please shareholders in the short run, but they also sow political and social resentment that comes back to haunt the system.

Why you need to watch

What makes this episode of Capital & Power essential isn’t just Green’s expertise—it’s his ability to connect market structure, corporate incentives, and political consequences into a single story. He believes in capitalism, but as he admits, “I sound increasingly like a socialist.” That tension—between markets and democracy, between efficiency and fairness—runs through every topic he tackles.

If you care about where markets are headed, how policies like H-1B visas shape the job market, why passive investing could trigger the next crash, or what Sherwin-Williams’ cost-cutting says about corporate America, this conversation will challenge your assumptions.

Green doesn’t just analyze markets. He explains why the rules of the game are breaking—and why ignoring those breaks won’t make them go away.