Michael Burry Signals Renewed Focus on Palantir: Bearish Clue or Something Bigger?

Michael Burry, the investor immortalized in The Big Short for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market, remains one of Wall Street's most closely watched contrarians. Known for his value-oriented, bubble-averse approach, Burry—through Scion Asset Management and now his Substack Cassandra Unchained—frequently highlights overvaluations and unsustainable narratives. His latest public signal, a February 10, 2026, X post stating "I am working on something $PLTR" alongside a technical chart, has drawn significant attention.

The Latest Post: Burry's Technical Analysis on Palantir ($PLTR)

In the post, Burry shared a chart of Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) with the caption "I am working on something $PLTR." While the exact image details are visual, community reactions and replies indicate a bearish technical setup. Observers noted Fibonacci retracement levels, a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, and downside targets around $50–$80 per share, depending on support breaks.

This marks a notable shift toward technical analysis for Burry, who traditionally emphasizes fundamentals. The phrasing "I am working on something" suggests active research—potentially for his Substack, a position adjustment, or both—rather than a casual observation. Given Palantir's association with the AI boom (data analytics, government contracts, and enterprise software), the post aligns with Burry's skepticism of elevated AI valuations.The market reacted with mixed but engaged responses: some dismissed it as "astrology" or outdated patterns like head-and-shoulders, while others viewed it as a high-profile warning amid PLTR's volatility. For Burry followers, it serves as a timely prompt to reassess AI-adjacent stocks.

Burry's Latest Holdings: Bearish AI Bets Dominate Q3 2025 13F

Scion Asset Management's Q3 2025 13F filing (covering positions as of September 30, 2025, filed in early November) reveals a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio heavy on derivatives. The reported 13F securities value reached approximately $1.38 billion, with notable use of options.

Key highlights include:

• Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) puts — The largest position, with puts on 5 million shares representing roughly 66% of the portfolio's notional value (around $912 million). This is a significant bearish bet against one of the AI sector's flagship names.

• NVIDIA ($NVDA) puts — Another major short exposure, with puts on 1 million shares accounting for about 13.5% (~$186–187 million notional), signaling skepticism toward the AI chip leader and broader infrastructure spending.
• Long equity positions (smaller portion of the overall exposure) — New or increased stakes in Molina Healthcare ($MOH, ~35% of a reported equity slice), Lululemon Athletica ($LULU, ~26%), SLM Corp ($SLM), and Bruker Corp (possibly preferred shares). These reflect value-oriented picks in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and other sectors perceived as undervalued or resilient.

Note that 13F filings capture long positions and options but do not fully detail all shorts or intraday adjustments. Some reports indicate a smaller core equity AUM (around $68 million in certain breakdowns), with the larger notional values tied to options. Burry has a history of high turnover and concentrated wagers, often using derivatives for asymmetric bets.

Subsequent news in late 2025 and early 2026 mentioned additional activity, such as renewed interest in GameStop ($GME) in some reports, though the core Q3 filing underscores the AI-short theme. Burry has also publicly defended holdings like Molina Healthcare amid price dips, framing them as undervalued opportunities.

Recent Market Commentary: Warnings on the AI Bubble

Burry's public statements in late 2025 and early 2026 reinforce a consistent theme: the AI investment frenzy resembles past manias, driven by high capital expenditures (capex), stretched valuations, and questionable near-term revenue realization.

• He has described the market as "volatile and unsettled" due to "historically high valuations, record capital expenditures, and negligible 'artificial intelligence' revenues."
• In posts and his Substack , Burry questioned whether massive AI-related capex is premature, plagued by accounting maneuvers, or even necessary long-term, citing conversations with tech insiders.
• He warned that government intervention cannot prevent an AI bubble burst, calling the problem "too big to save" and predicting potential systemic fallout.
• Broader commentary touches on Bitcoin patterns, precious metals liquidity risks, and selective value opportunities (e.g., optimism on certain healthcare names despite short-term weakness).

After reportedly deregistering aspects of Scion Asset Management in November 2025, Burry shifted focus to Cassandra Unchained, a paid Substack offering deeper analysis, historical parallels, and stock/market projections. Recent entries (e.g., "Short Thoughts: February 2, 2026") cover earnings seasons and specific theses, including GameStop-related commentary.

This move allows more transparent, detailed expression of his views beyond regulatory constraints.

Predicting Burry's Next Moves

Based on the February 10, 2026, PLTR post, his existing large put position, and ongoing AI critiques, several scenarios emerge:

• Deepening the Palantir/AI Bearish Thesis — The post likely signals continued or expanded work on PLTR, possibly adding to puts, layering technical/fundamental analysis for Substack subscribers, or preparing a more comprehensive short case. A break below key supports could validate targets in the $50–$80 range and encourage further downside positioning.
• Maintaining Concentrated Derivative Bets — Burry's style favors asymmetric payoffs. He may hold or roll NVDA and PLTR puts while monitoring for a broader AI correction triggered by earnings disappointments, capex scrutiny, or macroeconomic shifts.
• Selective Value Hunting — Long positions in names like MOH suggest he seeks undervalued assets amid potential market volatility. He has expressed "happiness" at dips in favored holdings, viewing them as buying opportunities. Expect commentary on healthcare, consumer, or other non-AI sectors.
• Substack as Primary Platform — With Scion's evolution and his newsletter's growth (over 220,000 subscribers), Burry may increasingly use Cassandra Unchained for in-depth theses, reducing reliance on cryptic X posts. Paid content could include proprietary models, historical analogies, and forward projections.
• Macro Risks — Burry continues to flag bubble risks in tech/AI, with potential spillover to crypto, metals, or broader equities. A "number of bad years" for stocks remains a recurring concern in his commentary.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Michael Burry's latest PLTR signal, combined with his heavy AI puts and vocal bubble warnings, underscores a contrarian stance against unchecked enthusiasm in artificial intelligence. While long-term AI potential is undeniable, Burry highlights near-term risks from valuations, spending efficiency, and revenue lags—echoing his historical success in spotting imbalances.Investors should:

• Monitor Palantir and NVIDIA earnings, capex trends, and technical levels.
• Review diversified value opportunities in healthcare and other sectors.
• Consider professional advice before acting on high-conviction, volatile positions like options.