MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here’s What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) delivered mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with revenue declines offset by strategic wins in key areas like Las Vegas Strip performance and BetMGM’s turnaround. As the company pivots toward 2025’s full-year goals, analysts are focusing on cost-cutting, share buybacks, and the potential for BetMGM to drive growth. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers and what investors should watch.

Q1 2025: A Mixed Bag, But Strategic Gains

MGM’s Q1 revenue fell 2% year-over-year to $4.3 billion, driven by declines at Las Vegas Strip Resorts (-3%) and MGM China (-3%). While non-gaming revenue dipped due to lower hotel rates (ADR down 7% in Las Vegas), casino revenue surged 8%, fueled by strong slot and table game performance. A record 94% hotel occupancy in Las Vegas highlights robust demand, with April projected as a record month for Strip hotel revenue.

Despite the revenue softness, MGM’s adjusted EPS of $0.69 beat estimates by a staggering 40.8%, driven by cost controls and the $2 billion share repurchase program announced in April. The company also noted BetMGM’s progress: its Q1 loss narrowed to $15.2 million from $32.6 million in 2024, with full-year revenue targeting $2.4–$2.5 billion and a path to EBITDA profitability.

Analysts’ Full-Year Outlook: Betting on Cost Cuts and BetMGM

Analysts project diluted EPS for 2025 to range between $0.53 and $0.66, reflecting optimism about MGM’s strategic moves:

1. BetMGM’s Turnaround:
2. The venture is expected to achieve positive EBITDA for the full year, a major milestone after years of losses. Its Q1 online sports betting revenue jumped 68% year-over-year, while iGaming revenue rose 27%.

3. A $2.4–$2.5 billion revenue target implies 14–19% growth over 2024, fueled by market expansion in regulated U.S. states and international markets like Brazil.

4. Cost-Saving Initiatives:

5. MGM aims to exceed $150 million in EBITDA improvements from restructuring efforts, targeting $200 million in annualized savings. This includes reducing corporate overhead and optimizing operations.

6. Share Buybacks:

7. The new $2 billion repurchase program (plus $337 million remaining) signals confidence in MGM’s valuation. Year-to-date, $494 million was spent on buybacks, reducing shares outstanding by 43% since early 2021.

Key Risks and Challenges

• Las Vegas Strip Competitiveness: While occupancy is strong, MGM must navigate pricing pressures as competitors like Wynn Resorts and Caesars Entertainment also boost capacity.
• MGM China Headwinds: Macau’s gaming revenue remains sluggish, with MGM China’s table games drop down 5% in Q1. Expanding premium offerings (e.g., villas and suites) could mitigate this, but macroeconomic uncertainty lingers.
• Digital Market Volatility: BetMGM faces regulatory hurdles in Europe, though growth in U.S. markets and Brazil offsets these risks.

Investor Takeaway: A Stock Poised for Recovery

MGM’s Q1 results underscore its ability to navigate headwinds while capitalizing on strengths like Las Vegas’s dominance and BetMGM’s turnaround. Analysts’ price targets range from $35 to $60, with the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of 12.9, below sector averages.

The $2 billion buyback program and BetMGM’s path to EBITDA profitability are catalysts for shareholder value. However, investors must monitor execution on cost-saving goals and Macau’s recovery.

Conclusion: MGM’s 2025 Outlook Is a Gamble Worth Taking

MGM Resorts is positioning itself to capitalize on its core strengths, with BetMGM’s growth and share buybacks forming the backbone of its 2025 strategy. While risks like Macau’s slowdown and regulatory challenges persist, the company’s Q1 performance—particularly its 40.8% EPS beat—suggests management is delivering on its promises.

With a $2.4–$2.5 billion revenue target for BetMGM and $200 million in cost savings on track, analysts’ forecasts of $0.66 EPS by year-end appear achievable. For investors, MGM’s undervalued stock and strategic moves make it a compelling play in the gaming sector, provided macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

In short, MGM’s combination of defensive assets in Las Vegas, a turning tide for BetMGM, and aggressive capital returns positions it to outperform peers in 2025—if it can navigate the remaining hurdles.