Metsera Plunges 6.85%—What’s Behind the Sudden Selloff?

Summary
• Metsera’s Q2 2025 results highlighted 8.4% weight loss for MET-233i but reported a $68.7M net loss
• Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating, citing catalyst-rich 2025 pipeline
• Stock trades at $36.73 (vs. $39.43 previous close), with intraday range of $34.07–$37.10

Metsera’s (NASDAQ:MTSR) sharp intraday decline has drawn immediate attention, with the stock down 6.85% as of 13:58 ET. While the company’s obesity pipeline remains robust, the selloff appears to stem from a combination of elevated R&D costs and a disappointing earnings report. The stock’s 30-day support level at $26.52 looms large as investors assess short-term risks.

Q2 Earnings Miss and Elevated R&D Costs Trigger Sell-Off
Metsera’s 6.85% drop reflects investor concern over its Q2 2025 financials. Despite positive clinical progress—including 8.4% weight loss for MET-233i—the company posted a $68.7M net loss, with R&D expenses surging to $60.5M (up from $20.9M in Q2 2024). This 192% year-over-year increase in costs, coupled with a $0.66-per-share loss that beat expectations by $0.63, has raised red flags about capital efficiency. The selloff accelerated after Cantor Fitzgerald’s Overweight rating failed to offset the earnings shortfall, leaving the stock vulnerable to profit-taking and bearish sentiment.

Biotech Sector Mixed as AMGN Trails Metsera’s Move
The biotech sector showed divergent momentum, with Amgen (AMGN) down 0.13% and the ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) falling 0.42%. Metsera’s selloff, however, is more pronounced, reflecting its speculative nature and reliance on near-term clinical data. While AMGN’s stable cash flow cushions it from volatility, Metsera’s cash runway into 2027 remains a double-edged sword—its $530.9M balance sheet is sufficient for current operations but must now justify higher R&D burn rates.

Navigating Volatility: ETFs and Options for the Bearish Play
• Bollinger Bands: Upper = $48.82, Middle = $36.91, Lower = $25.00 (current price near middle band)
• MACD: 2.90 (Signal: 3.11, Histogram: -0.21) (bearish crossover likely)
• RSI: 71.39 (overbought territory)
• 30D MA: $33.98 (price above MA, but trend weakening)

Metsera’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias. The RSI’s overbought reading and bearish MACD histogram signal exhaustion in the rally. Key levels to watch: support at $34.07 (intraday low) and resistance at $37.10 (intraday high). The ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) mirrors Metsera’s decline, offering a leveraged play for sector bears. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Overweight rating adds near-term uncertainty, but the stock’s 152.59% implied volatility in the MTSR20250815P35 put option suggests market anticipation of further downside.

Top Options Picks:
• MTSR20250815C40 (Call, $40 strike, 2025-08-15):
- IV: 124.98% (elevated, reflecting high volatility)
- Delta: 0.433 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.143 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0387 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 1,359 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0 (strike above current price)
- Why it stands out: This call option balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a near-term rebound scenario. The 124.98% IV implies significant market expectation of volatility, while the moderate delta ensures responsiveness to price swings.

• MTSR20251121C40 (Call, $40 strike, 2025-11-21):
- IV: 110.86% (reasonable volatility)
- Delta: 0.577 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0437 (lower time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0171 (modest sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 8,000 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0 (strike above current price)
- Why it stands out: With 8,000 contracts traded, this option offers strong liquidity and a high delta for capitalizing on a potential rebound. The 110.86% IV suggests market readiness for a near-term catalyst, such as VESPER-1 data in September.

Action Insight: Aggressive bears may consider MTSR20250815P35 (put) if $35 support breaks, while bulls should monitor the $37.10 resistance for a potential bounce.

Backtest Metsera Stock Performance
The backtest of MTSR's performance after an intraday plunge of -7% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55%, the 10-Day win rate is 60%, and the 30-Day win rate is 68.33%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return during the backtest period was 38.19% over 30 days, suggesting that MTSR has the potential for significant gains following a substantial pullback.

Short-Term Bearish Play: Lock in Stops Below $34.07
Metsera’s selloff is driven by elevated R&D costs and a disappointing earnings report, but its robust pipeline and $530.9M cash runway provide a floor for recovery. Traders should watch the $34.07 intraday low as a critical support level and the $37.10 high for a potential rebound. The biotech sector leader, Amgen (AMGN), remains relatively stable at -0.13%, but Metsera’s volatility makes it a high-risk/high-reward play. For now, a bearish bias is justified, with stops below $34.07 to protect against a deeper selloff. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Overweight rating may yet spark a short-term rally, but execution hinges on Q3 data releases and cash flow efficiency.