This Metric Suggests Bitcoin's Late November Plunge Was the Bottom and Major Upside Lies Ahead

Bitcoin's short-term holder profit/loss ratio reached a historically significant low of 0.013 on Nov. 24, aligning with previous bear market bottoms. This metric, tracked by Glassnode, is seen as a key indicator of market sentiment.

The ratio has since rebounded to approximately 0.45 as of early January 2026, indicating that short-term holders are becoming increasingly profitable. This suggests a shift in market dynamics following the late November price correction.

Historical data shows that when the profit/loss ratio approaches 1, Bitcoin typically enters a sustained bullish phase. Analysts believe the current ratio still has room to expand before reaching equilibrium, pointing to potential for further price increases.

Why Did This Happen?

The November trough saw the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fall to around 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC— the highest level since the FTX collapse in late 2022.

This reading has previously coincided with major market bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each instance marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, reinforcing its credibility as a signal.

The sharp increase in short-term holder supply in loss indicated widespread underperformance among short-term investors, which often precedes a market rebound as those positions are either sold or held through recovery.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin has since rallied to about $94,000 by early January 2026, a more than 7% increase from the November low. Short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit has rebounded to 850,000 BTC.

The market has also seen renewed demand for Bitcoin through spot ETFs, with cumulative inflows for Bitcoin ETFs reaching $2 trillion as of January 2, 2026. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded net inflows, suggesting a broad-based recovery.

BlackRock's IBIT dominates the Bitcoin ETF market with about 70% of trading volume. Other major players like Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB also saw inflows in the first week of 2026.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bitcoin has likely bottomed and is set to benefit from a broader tokenization cycle in 2026. The firm set a 2026 price target of $150,000 and a 2027 target of $200,000.

The firm expects stablecoin supply to grow by 56% to $420 billion and blockchain-locked assets to increase from $37 billion to $80 billion in 2026. This growth is tied to predictions in stablecoin payments, tokenized real-world assets, and prediction markets.

Market participants are also watching corporate holders like Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc, which reported a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in Q4 2025. This came as Bitcoin declined nearly 24% during the quarter, dragging Strategy's shares down 47.5% in 2025.

Other companies like BitMine are expanding their stake in Ethereum, with recent additions pushing validator entry queues near 1 million ETH. This highlights a broader trend of institutional and corporate investment in crypto despite volatility.

Bitcoin's price has shown resilience amid geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela. While the price briefly dipped below $90,000, analysts remain optimistic about a recovery if the asset remains above key support levels.

The market's focus is shifting to whether Bitcoin can break through $96,000 to $100,000, with some viewing this as a test of institutional demand. ETF inflows and growing tokenization activity are seen as supportive factors.

Investors are also watching Bitcoin ETF outflows for signals of market stress. The final week of 2025 saw $348 million in outflows, but the first week of 2026 reversed that trend with net inflows of $645.6 million.

Corporate exposure to Bitcoin remains a key area of risk and reward. Strategy's Q4 losses highlight the volatility of using crypto as a balance sheet asset. However, companies like BitMine continue to add to their crypto holdings, betting on long-term appreciation.