One Metric Shows Crypto Is Now in a Bear Market: Carl 'The Moon'

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market continue to face downward pressure amid signs of weakening demand and bearish on-chain indicators. Analysts and influencers are increasingly describing the current environment as a bear market, with price trends and trading volume suggesting a shift in sentiment.

Carl 'The Moon', a prominent crypto influencer, cited a key metric — YouTube view counts — to assess market conditions. He noted that view counts on his and other crypto-related YouTube channels have dropped significantly compared to the bull market of 2021. This decline reflects a broader slowdown in retail interest and speculation according to Carl 'The Moon'.

Institutional demand also appears to be waning. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded outflows of nearly $398 million on Thursday, with only two of the nine U.S.-listed ETFs seeing inflows. Ethereum ETFs extended their outflow streak, while XRP ETFs saw a modest resumption of inflows. The mixed flow dynamics suggest continued uncertainty among institutional investors.

Why Did This Happen?

On-chain metrics corroborate the bearish narrative. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin had entered a bear market as early as November 2025, based on multiple indicators. These include declining exchange inflows, reduced demand from treasury holdings, and a structural contraction in capital flows.

The weakening demand is attributed to the end of the strong tailwinds that supported Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The initial institutional inflows driven by the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and regulatory optimism under President Donald Trump have since faded according to CryptoQuant analysis. Moreno warned that the bearish trend may persist in the short term, with Bitcoin facing potential support levels around $56,000.

How Did Markets Respond?

The broader cryptocurrency market remains in a state of caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in fear mode since the October 2025 flash crash. Bitcoin's price action has been range-bound around $90,000, while altcoins continue to underperform. Ethereum has struggled to break above $3,000, and XRP is under pressure near $2.00.

Despite the price weakness, trading activity in altcoins has remained elevated. Centralized exchange volume for non-top-five tokens has reached cycle highs, indicating continued activity among larger players even as retail participation has waned. This divergence between volume and price suggests the market has shifted toward a more concentrated and institutional-driven structure.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring potential catalysts for a reversal. One potential catalyst is Venezuela's rumored "shadow" Bitcoin reserve, which could impact market sentiment if confirmed. Analysts have also pointed to the "clean-slate effect" of the new year, where traders reposition portfolios after the October 2025 market correction.

Regulatory developments continue to play a role. Colombia and France have implemented stricter crypto tax rules, increasing compliance requirements for exchanges and investors. Meanwhile, U.S. banks like Morgan Stanley are expanding into the crypto space, with plans to launch Bitcoin and Solana ETFs. These moves reflect a broader shift toward institutional acceptance of digital assets.

Investor sentiment will also be shaped by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical developments. The U.S. incursion into Venezuela and the political landscape under President Trump remain key factors influencing risk appetite.

Until demand recovery becomes evident on-chain, analysts suggest a cautious approach to the market. The coming months will likely be defined by continued volatility and the search for a new price equilibrium.